Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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472 FXUS63 KSGF 272340 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 640 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions through midweek, with temperatures near normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s. - Return of rain chances through late week into the weekend. Highest confidence in rain chances (50-80%) late Thursday night through Friday. Low potential for excessive rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Through Tonight: High pressure is slowly settling into the area behind a departing trough. Weak forcing on the backside of the departing system has spawned a few isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern Missouri. This activity is expected to sink southeast through east central Missouri, keeping our area dry through this evening. Highs have reached into the upper 70s to lower 80s areawide. For tonight, the high settles into the region, as winds become light and variable. With a drier air mass in place, fog will be limited. However, some patchy fog may occur within low-lying areas and near waterways. Lows fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Tuesday: For Tuesday, another dry and quiet day across the area with a system to the southwest across the Southern Plains. Our region remains locked into northwest flow, though a mix of clouds and sun can be expected from the system southwest of the area. Highs climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s, right around normal for late May. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Wednesday: Low rain chances (10-30%) across far southwest Missouri on Wednesday afternoon/evening as an additional wave slides across the Southern Plains. However, the lack of quality moisture return this far north will likely limit rain chances. Most areas remain dry through Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s. Thursday-Sunday: Mid-level ridging deteriorates late week with more zonal pattern with embedded shortwaves. This supports the return of more widespread shower and thunderstorms chances (50-80%) to the area late Thursday into Friday. Additional rain chances (20-40%) linger across the area next weekend with highs remaining near normal in the lower 80s. Ensemble guidance vary on exact timing and location of synoptic features, that will be best resolved in the shorter term. Current guidance suggest instability to be best across the west, with rather weak shear. Moisture return looks stronger by Friday as low-level moisture advects into the area with PWATs climbing to 1.5 inches or higher. With this setup in mind, severe weather chances remain low with more of an emphasis on the potential for excessive rainfall and flooding. A Marginal (1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook exists for Friday across the area. NBM 72 hour QPF probabilities (Thursday morning-Sunday morning) for greater than 1 inch are 60 to 80% and for greater than 2 inches are 30 to 50% across the western part of the area. Stay tuned as we fine tune details on this system through the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions will persist for at least through 09Z at all TAF sites, but potentially longer (70% chance for VFR to remain through the entire TAF period at any given TAF site). Winds will gradually decrease and become variable through tonight as high pressure slowly filters in. Mid- to high-level clouds will also filter in during this time period. There is a 30% chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two to develop along a NW-SE oriented boundary across SW Missouri. This brings a slight chance of showers impacting all TAF sites generally between the 09-22Z period. Confidence is very low on timing and exact location of the band, but have put confidence in terms of PROB30 and TEMPO groups in the TAF. JLN/BBG has the highest chance of seeing rain between 14-20Z, as noted by the TEMPO period. A better window and probability should come to light with the 06Z TAF issuance. Otherwise, winds will remain light out of the NW after 17Z. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Price