Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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899 FXUS63 KSGF 260741 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 241 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms for the remainder of the overnight into Sunday morning. All modes of severe weather will be possible. - Redevelopment of strong to severe weather this afternoon into the early evening possible along any outlflows and with cold front. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main severe weather risks. - Flood Watch in effect until 7 pm for the entire area. Repeating thunderstorms could produce 1-3 inches of rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show an upper level shortwave currently shifting east across the plains. 90 to 100 kt upper level jet streak was pushing northeast out of TX and OK into southeast KS and southwest MO. Lower in the atmosphere, 850mb analysis shows a strong low level jet of 50 to 55kts from eastern OK into western MO. At the surface, low pressure was located over central KS with a stationary boundary bisecting our CWA from northwest to southeast. Supercell activity over southeast KS and northwest AR with additional line segments over northeast KS. Temperatures across the CWA were in the low to mid 70s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. Rest of tonight into Sunday morning: Severe convection will continue to track east across southern Missouri during the remainder of the overnight. Large hail up to baseball size, damaging wind gusts over 70 mph and tornadoes will remain possible with these supercells. Intense rainfall rates will also lead to some flash flooding where the heaviest rain falls and we have a flood watch out until 7 pm this evening. This afternoon into Tonight: An upper level wave will shift into the area this afternoon, while the surface low and cold front will push into the CWA. If enough atmospheric recovery can take place from this mornings convection, sufficient instability should build up ahead of the cold front and any remnant boundaries for the redevelopment of strong to severe convection during the afternoon and evening. The most likely areas for severe convective redevelopment this afternoon will be east of the US 65 corridor. Large hail up to golf ball size and damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph will be the main severe weather risks. An isolated tornado risk will also be possible. Most of the activity should exit the area by 10 pm. Overnight and Monday: Clearing should take place overnight tonight behind the cold front and upper wave, with drier air moving into the area. Surface high pressure will move into the area tonight into Monday. Lows in the upper 50s to low 60s are expected tonight with highs on Monday in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 On Monday night, another strong upper level wave will drop southeast over the upper Mississippi valley region and into the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will keep us in a northwest flow pattern into the middle of the week with surface high pressure being reinforced over the region. Dry and slightly cooler temperatures are expected during this period. High pressure will shift eastward during the end of the week and will allow moisture to start creeping back into the area over the western CWA with precipitation chances increasing over the area from late in the week into the upcoming weekend(20-50%). Temperatures in the later part of the long term will be near seasonal norms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 For the 06z TAFS, some isolated/scattered strong to severe convection over northeast OK and southeast KS will push into the area over the next several hours affecting all 3 TAF sites. Additional convection to the northwest in northeast KS will likely form into a squall line and dive southeast into the area, possibly affecting SGF between 11z and 16z this morning. Scattered afternoon convection can`t be ruled out, but most of this activity should stay north and east of the forecast points. The strong and severe convection will have the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. Things should clear out during the early evening hours. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg