Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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766 FXUS63 KSGF 310526 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1226 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms tonight, mainly west of Highway 65. The main hazard potential will be locally heavy rainfall and Slight Risk (2 out of 4) of flash flooding, especially along and west of the I-49 corridor. - Much better chance for widespread rain (70-90%) arrives Friday into Friday night. There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) of flash flooding with localized rainfall amounts of 3-5". - Warm and muggy summer-like pattern Sunday into midweek with daily chances (30-60%) for showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Synoptic Scale Pattern and Current Conditions: A rather complex upper-level pattern is in place across the CONUS. Upper-level troughs are in place across the northern Rockies and the northeastern U.S. with an amplified ridge present from the Great Lakes into the central Canadian provinces. Multiple mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) are evident on both satellite and radar imagery. One MCV is located north of Salina, KS. A second MCV (and an associated MCS) is located just southeast of Wichita. A third MCV is located in the Oklahoma City metro. Additional convection is located east of this MCV from Stillwater, OK into northeastern Texas. These MCVs will have implications on sensible weather across the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas over the next 36 hours. Late this Afternoon and Tonight: The MCS across southeastern Kansas has recently shown warming cloud tops and reduced bowing tendencies. Both wind fields and the presence of a NW to SE oriented instability gradient would suggest that any remaining stronger convection within this particular MCS should begin to dive more to the east-southeast over the next few hours. However, MLCAPE values of 800-1200 J/kg and little in the way of capping will promote some convective activity making it into areas along and west of the I-49 corridor late this afternoon and early this evening. The limited amounts of instability should preclude severe storms- however, brief gusty winds and perhaps some small hail can be expected with a few storms. Brief, heavy rainfall can also be expected as a more moisture rich environment (PWATs approaching 1.50") begins to work into the area. CAMs suggest that rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour may be realized with some of these storms. Outside of bow echoes, mean storm motions with cellular activity will be rather slow. Thus, there is a limited (2 of 4) threat for localized flash flooding starting this evening along and west of the I-49 corridor. Later tonight, the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms will continue especially west of U.S. 65 as those MCVs slowly propagate east towards the KS/MO border. The rainfall may be somewhat spotty, as it will likely be tied to mesoscale areas of increased lift (enhanced by a low-level jet) on the eastern flank of the MCVs. Again, the potential for locally heavy rainfall will continue. This will include a risk for localized flash flooding. Friday and Friday Night: Upper-level short wave energy will traverse in an eastward fashion across the Dakotas into the Great Lakes. Those MCVs will continue to drift eastward across the Missouri Ozarks. While models can tend to struggle with the track of these features, there is reasonably good consensus that coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms will increase throughout Friday morning across western Missouri and shift east into the eastern Ozarks during the afternoon. Activity should then slowly diminish from west to east Friday night, however the eventual track and timing of leftover MCVs will ultimately determine when better chances for precipitation will begin to dwindle. The threat for severe storms will continue to be almost nil given a lack of instability and poor deep layer shear. However, the threat for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will continue. HREF interquartile data suggests PWATs will rise into the 1.40-1.70" range throughout the day. Weak flow in the atmosphere will continue to support relatively slow storm motions. WPC has maintained a 2 out of 4 threat for excessive rainfall for much of the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas for Friday and Friday night. Rainfall amounts at a given location are really hard to pin down given that mesoscale influences will be dominant. The HREF local probability-match mean (LPMM) valid through 7 AM Saturday paints multiple bullseyes of 2-3" rainfall amounts across the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas. In contrast, there are also locations where the LPMM suggests that less than 0.10" of QPF. It should be noted that the HREF maximum QPF product suggests very localized amounts up to five inches. This again supports the concerns for localized flash flooding. Temperatures on Friday will be held down due to the expected rain and cloud cover. Some areas may not even make it out of the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Saturday and Saturday Night: Most model guidance suggests that the MCV may eventually conglomerate into a broader short wave trough and shift east of the area. This would result in weak mid- and upper-level height rises. While we may still see some leftover showers and thunderstorms in the morning, primarily across the eastern Ozarks, most areas should be dry. Sunday and Monday: Ensembles suggest that the upper-level flow will be fairly flat sans weak embedded short wave troughs. The timing and placement of such features is quite variable upon member inspection. There appear to be two potential scenarios for possible convection. One would be afternoon pop-up storms as the environment becomes uncapped. Another potential scenario would be an MCS or two rolling in off the Plains. We have kept PoPs in the 40-60% range for much of the period with the highest PoPs on Monday. Temperatures will be seasonably warm with the NBM showing good clustering around highs in the lower 80s. It will be rather muggy as dew points creep back up towards 70 degrees. Tuesday into Wednesday: Ensemble cluster scenarios indicate a stronger short wave trough progressing through the central U.S. This includes a cold front sweeping through the region sometime in the later Tuesday to early Wednesday time frame. This setup would favor another potential round of thunderstorms. CIPS and CSU machine learning products do indicate at least some limited severe thunderstorm potential with this setup. Thursday: Most ensemble scenarios indicate the front should be far enough east for a return to dry weather. We should see a slight cool down and a drier air mass behind the departing front with temperatures fairly close to normal. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Scattered showers ongoing at the start of the TAF period will continue through much of the day. Some showers may be locally heavy and reduce visibilities below 3 miles. There will likely be a few isolated thunderstorms mixed in with the showers across the region, but confidence in them impacting a terminal site was too low to include in the current TAFs. Ceilings will degrade from VFR to MVFR early Friday morning and then eventually to IFR and LIFR throughout the day. Prevailing winds will be out of the southeast through most of the TAF period, though they may be locally influenced by smaller-scale storm features. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schaumann LONG TERM...Schaumann AVIATION...Didio