Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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939 FXUS63 KSGF 301724 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1224 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, mainly along and west of I-49. A few strong storms capable of producing gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall are possible. - Much better chance for widespread rain (70-90%) arrives Friday into Saturday. There is a Slight (2 of 4 risk) of flooding. - Warm and muggy summer-like pattern Sunday into midweek with daily chances (30-60%) for showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level trough over the northeastern U.S. and another centered over the Alberta province, with a ridge axis shifting east over Missouri this morning. Thunderstorms have already begun firing across the High Plains in response to passing shortwave energy and a favorable environment. Much of our area will remain dry today with the ridge overhead. However, several CAMs suggest the storms out west may maintain themselves long enough to impact our southeast Kansas and far western Missouri counties late this afternoon and evening. If these storms can develop more robust cold pools, RAP data suggest anywhere from 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE will be available to tap into, though instability rapidly decreases to the east. Therefore, a few stronger storms with gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain will be possible generally along and west of the I-49 corridor in the 5-10 PM timeframe. Ultimately, how these storms evolve across the Plains will influence the extent of thunderstorm potential in our area, which will continue to be assessed throughout the day today. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Flood Potential Friday into early Saturday: A shortwave disturbance is forecast to develop across southern Kansas into Oklahoma Thursday night into early Friday morning. The extended reaches of the CAMs depict an MCV (or several) forming somewhere in the Oklahoma/Arkansas/Missouri region and slowly lifting northeast throughout the day Friday. Southerly 850 mb flow will increase moisture return into the area, with forecast PWATs progged in the 1.5-1.7 inch range. Coincident weak upper-level flow will result in a fairly slow system progression and an extended period of rainfall. Additionally, MCVs are often notorious for being flood producers, particularly if you can get persistent embedded convection with them. Latest NBM 4.2 Rainfall Total Probabilities Friday-Saturday: Prob >0.5 inch: 60-90% Prob >1 inch: 30-75% Prob >2 inch:10-40% Summer-like Pattern Sunday through Midweek: LREF clusters depict general agreement in a quasi-zonal upper- level flow pattern maintaining itself early next week before developing more high-amplitude ridging by week`s end. During this period, southerly 850 mb flow looks to continue to pump warm, moist air into the region. With daily forecast highs in the mid 80s and dew points near 70, it will feel quite muggy. Resultantly, any subtle shortwave disturbances that move overhead will pose the risk for thunderstorm development that is pulse-like in nature. Thus, we maintain low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) each day through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Multiple upper level disturbances will bring lowering ceilings and increasing rain potential from this evening into Friday. Rain chances and increasing MVFR potential will start at Joplin around 00Z as showers and a few thunderstorms push out of eastern Kansas. More in the way of widespread rainfall will then shift from west to east across southern Missouri from late tonight into Friday morning. Widespread MVFR ceilings will transition to IFR throughout the morning. Pockets of heavier rainfall will also result in MVFR and brief IFR visibilities. A few thunderstorms are also expected Friday morning in the vicinity of Joplin. Surface winds throughout the TAF period will generally remain out of the southeast at 6-12 knots. There will be gusts around 20 knots until sunset at Joplin and Springfield. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Schaumann