Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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280 FXUS63 KSGF 311046 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 546 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms today into tonight. There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) of flash flooding with localized rainfall amounts up to 3-4". - Warm and muggy summer-like pattern Sunday into midweek with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Radar mosaics and satellite imagery depict several MCVs spinning through the region early this morning, supporting scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. This activity will gradually shift east through the Missouri Ozarks today, and with weak upper-level flow, progression will be rather slow. Lightning potential appears highest generally along and south of the I-44 corridor, though with meager instability of 500-1000 J/kg and weak shear, severe weather is not expected. A moisture plume will continue to surge into the area today, contributing to PWATs in the 1.4-1.7 inch range. The abundant moisture and slow storm motions will contribute to a localized flash flooding threat through tonight. The 00Z HREF LPMM--which often does a good job of capturing the higher end rainfall potential--depicts pockets of 2-3 inches of rainfall through tonight. For what it`s worth, the HREF max shows the potential for 3-4 inches as a reasonable worst-case scenario. Notably, recent runs of several CAMs depict coverage of the moderate to heavy rain being more scattered in nature, so today could very well be a case where only a few localized areas receive several inches of rain, and others not much. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Guidance continues to suggest mid-level shortwave energy shifting east of the forecast area Saturday morning into the afternoon hours, and with it, decreasing rain chances. Showers may linger the longest across the eastern Ozarks, where we have maintained 20-40% chances into the afternoon. The main story for early to mid next week will be the warm and increasingly humid conditions. Ensembles depict the synoptic upper- level pattern becoming quasi-zonal Sunday into Monday, with a few weak embedded shortwaves transiting the Plains. With a continued moist airmass, pop-up thunderstorms and decaying MCSs will remain possible through this period. The latest NBM PoPs are highest (50-80%) Monday with a passing surface front. LREF clusters generally agree on the upper-level flow pattern becoming more amplified by the middle to end of the week. Of note is a more prominent shortwave passing through the central CONUS Tuesday that could bring additional thunderstorm chances to the area in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. While it is far too early to latch onto specifics or any one solution, CIPS and CSU machine learning products do indicate at least some chance for severe weather. This potential will have to be better resolved in future forecast packages. Looking ahead to the latter part of the week, ensembles indicate broad upper-level ridging to amplify over the western/central CONUS, though there remain fairly large discrepancies over the exact longitudinal positioning. Ultimately, where this ridge sets up and how the pattern evolves will have significant implications on the sensible weather for our area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 541 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Scattered showers ongoing at the start of the TAF period will continue through much of the day. Some showers may be locally heavy and reduce visibilities below 3 miles. There will likely be a few isolated thunderstorms mixed in with the showers across the region, but confidence in them impacting a terminal site was too low to include in the current TAFs. Ceilings will degrade from VFR to MVFR this morning and then eventually to IFR and possibly LIFR throughout the day. Southeast winds this morning and afternoon will gradually turn to the west after 00Z through the end of the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Didio