576
FXUS63 KSGF 280509
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1209 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions through midweek, with temperatures near normal
  in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

- Return of rain chances through late week into the weekend.
  Highest confidence in rain chances (50-80%) late Thursday
  night through Friday. Low potential for excessive rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Through Tonight: High pressure is slowly settling into the area
behind a departing trough. Weak forcing on the backside of the
departing system has spawned a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms across northern Missouri. This activity is
expected to sink southeast through east central Missouri,
keeping our area dry through this evening. Highs have reached
into the upper 70s to lower 80s areawide.

For tonight, the high settles into the region, as winds become
light and variable. With a drier air mass in place, fog will be
limited. However, some patchy fog may occur within low-lying
areas and near waterways. Lows fall into the upper 50s to lower
60s.

Tuesday: For Tuesday, another dry and quiet day across the area
with a system to the southwest across the Southern Plains. Our
region remains locked into northwest flow, though a mix of
clouds and sun can be expected from the system southwest of the
area. Highs climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s, right around
normal for late May.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Wednesday: Low rain chances (10-30%) across far southwest
Missouri on Wednesday afternoon/evening as an additional wave
slides across the Southern Plains. However, the lack of quality
moisture return this far north will likely limit rain chances.
Most areas remain dry through Wednesday with highs in the upper
70s.

Thursday-Sunday: Mid-level ridging deteriorates late week with
more zonal pattern with embedded shortwaves. This supports the
return of more widespread shower and thunderstorms chances
(50-80%) to the area late Thursday into Friday. Additional rain
chances (20-40%) linger across the area next weekend with highs
remaining near normal in the lower 80s. Ensemble guidance vary
on exact timing and location of synoptic features, that will be
best resolved in the shorter term. Current guidance suggest
instability to be best across the west, with rather weak shear.
Moisture return looks stronger by Friday as low-level moisture
advects into the area with PWATs climbing to 1.5 inches or
higher. With this setup in mind, severe weather chances remain
low with more of an emphasis on the potential for excessive
rainfall and flooding. A Marginal (1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall
Outlook exists for Friday across the area. NBM 72 hour QPF
probabilities (Thursday morning-Sunday morning) for greater
than 1 inch are 60 to 80% and for greater than 2 inches are 30
to 50% across the western part of the area. Stay tuned as we
fine tune details on this system through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period. Low-end
rain chances (15-30%) exist between 14-19Z for mainly KJLN,
which could lower visibilities to MVFR. However confidence is
too low to include in anything other than a PROB30 group for
now. Otherwise, light and variable winds are expected through
this morning, then northwesterly winds between 5-10 kts this
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Melto