Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
065 FXUS66 KSGX 161014 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 315 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A trough deepening down the West Coast will bring a few degrees of cooling today and Monday, but it will still be quite warm. Monday will be the coolest day of the week followed by a degree or two of warming Tuesday and Wednesday. Hotter weather returns Friday through Sunday when a ridge of high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... The ridge that brought the hot weather Saturday will move east today and our weather will trend a little cooler today and Monday as we come under the influence of a Pacific trough that will move slowly down the coast. Monday will be the "coolest" day of the week with high temperatures a little below average for mid June, but still quite warm with lower desert highs from 100-105, high desert highs from 85-90, mountain highs in the 70s, valley highs from 75-85, and coastal highs from 68-74. Tuesday and Wednesday will be a degree or two warmer each day. This trough will also bring gusty west winds to the mountains and deserts each late afternoon and evening. The marine layer will remain fairly deep through Wednesday as a Catalina Eddy strengthens over the coastal waters. Low clouds will spread into the valleys each night before retreating back to coast each afternoon. On Thursday the trough weakens and lifts north, replaced by a ridge of high pressure that will build over the desert Southwest and bring hotter days Friday through Sunday. By next weekend the lower deserts highs will be back to between 110-115, high desert highs from 100- 105, and high will be 95-100 in the eastern sections of the Inland Empire. It will also be warmer in the coastal zones, but the shallow marine layer will moderate temperatures within 5 miles of the coast where highs will be in the 70s and low 80s. && .AVIATION... 160900Z...Coast/Valleys...BKN-OVC clouds with bases 500-1000 FT MSL covering much of the immediate coast this morning. Bases look to rise above 1000 ft MSL by 12-15Z as the coastal eddy becomes more defined, low confidence on more specific timing. CIG impacts most likely at coastal TAF sites through 15-17Z with local VIS 1-3 miles in fog on higher coastal terrain. Low clouds expected to clear to the coast 17-20Z. Higher bases anticipated later this afternoon and evening with an earlier onset time, likely closer to 1500-2000 FT MSL and arriving 00-03Z Mon. Mountains/Deserts...SKC with unrestricted VIS through this afternoon. Areas of wind gusts 25-35 kt from the west on the desert mountain slopes and into the deserts through Sun, along with weak to MOD UDDFS. && .MARINE... Northwest winds may gust to around 20 knots at times in the outer waters near San Clemente Island each afternoon and evening through Monday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday. && .BEACHES... A combination of a west swell of around 5 feet/9 seconds in the outer waters and south swells of around 2 feet/16 seconds on Monday will bring surf of 3-6 feet along with a high rip current risk through Monday. The surf and rip current risk will gradually lower on Tuesday. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Moede AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Adams