076
FXUS64 KSHV 190239
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
939 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A tropically-influenced weather pattern will continue across the
Four State Region through the middle of the week. Southeasterly
flow associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 (PTC1) in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico will instigate precipitation chances
south of the I-20 corridor through tomorrow evening. The diurnally
driven nature of this convection, combined with the tropical
windfield, lends itself towards afternoon/evening shower and
isolated thunderstorm development today and tomorrow. That said,
convection and cloud cover will provide meager relief with
temperature maximums/minimums continuing above normal in the lower
90s/mid-70s. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

As tropical influences drift further away from the Four State
Region, above average temperatures will gradually strengthen
through the weekend. This is due to broad ridging across the
Eastern U.S. that will intensify and expand westward into the
Southern Great Plains by Friday, boosting easterly surface flow
that becomes southerly flow later this weekend. Long-range
guidance indicates higher chances of triple-digit temperatures
with probabilities above 15 percent (statistically significant,
some areas higher than 30 percent), especially north of the I-20
corridor.

Heat hazard products will be more likely as a result later this
weekend. Adequate precautions and awareness are encouraged ahead
of time against the elevated potential for heat illnesses. For
this weekend, this includes (and is not limited to) altering
outdoor plans, taking frequent breaks if you must be outside,
checking the backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and
symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 935 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Scattered showers will continue to diminish over the next several
hours. Although clouds will remain over the region, expect VFR
conditions to return areawide and continue through the TAF period.
The exceptions could be at KTYR and KLFK as models hint at a
brief period of MVFR skies between midnight tonight and daybreak.
Can`t rule out the return of showers/t-storms during the late
afternoon, especially at KLFK. Otherwise, winds will remain from
the ESE, gusting up to 15 to 20 kts during the afternoon hours.

/20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  91  77  95 /  20  10   0   0
MLU  72  91  72  93 /  30  10   0   0
DEQ  70  87  72  92 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  73  90  73  95 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  71  89  70  93 /  20  10   0   0
TYR  74  88  74  93 /  10  20  10   0
GGG  74  89  74  93 /  20  20  10   0
LFK  74  90  74  93 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...20