937
FXUS64 KSHV 212342
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
642 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Quiet conditions across the region today, with mostly cloudy
skies. Despite the clouds, temps are still running well above
normal, with most areas seeing upper 80s to around 90 degrees at
this hour. The center of the upper level ridge in place this
morning has started to shift south of the region. This has allowed
for southwesterly flow aloft to develop over the area. A weak
short-wave along the flow has already kicked off some isolated
showers and thunderstorms to the west and northwest of the region.
Progs haven`t handled this very well, but the 06z ECMWF kinda
shows some indication of this. The storms haven`t been severe, but
some have been strong enough for our surrounding offices to issue
SPS`s. Expect some of this convection to eventually move into our
NW zones later this afternoon before diminishing. The best chance
for this occurring will be across areas along and north of I-30
corridor. SPC has continued to highlight a Slight Risk for severe
storms in the aforementioned area. This is mostly due to some
additional convection developing this evening along a front moving
across Oklahoma. This convection could move into our Slight Risk
zones before diminishing again late this evening. Hail and
damaging winds will be our primary threat.

The front will likely stall just to the NW of the region tonight, but
additional convection is expected to develop along it as early as
Wednesday morning. Although the front should remain NW of the
area, the convection is likely to make it into the region
throughout the day on Wednesday. uncertainty remains on how far
south the convection will make it into the region, but we are
pretty confident areas along and north of I-30 will see the brunt
of the storms. SPC has highlighted this with an Enhanced risk for
severe weather. It does appear that large large hail and damaging
winds are the greatest risk, but can`t rule out tornadoes. If
these storms train, flash flooding could also become a risk. The
convection should start to diminish in coverage by Wednesday
evening, but with residual boundaries left over from convection,
decided to keep pops in place along and north of I-20 through
Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The frontal boundary will retreat more north of the region on
Thursday, but POPs remain in the forecast. Most of this convective
development will be tied to residual boundaries in place from the
previous day convection and additional weak disturbances moving
along the flow aloft. Plenty of instability will remain in place,
so more damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible. With
another day of convection across the area, excessive rainfall will
also become more of an issue.

By Friday and through the upcoming Memorial Holiday Weekend,
slight chance to low end chance POPs will remain in the forecast.
Most of this convection will generally be along and north of the
I-20 corridor and will be during peak heating hours. Besides the
rain, the other hazard that could be of concern is the heat.
Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the mid 90s, especially
along and south of the I-20 corridor. With low to mid 70 degree
dewpoints in place, heat indices could climb between 100-105
degrees, which is just below Heat Advisory criteria.

Still expecting a pattern shift early next week as upper ridging
appears to becomes dominate across the Intermountain West, with
troughing developing across the Midwest. This should result in a
front moving through the area, followed by a shift to NW Flow and
a cooler pattern for our region. Expect more widespread precip
chances with the frontal passage. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

MVFR ceilings to overspread the region overnight as low-level
moisture increases ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. South
winds 5 to 10 knots tonight to increase to around 10 knots on
Wednesday. Ceilings to gradually lift to VFR across most
locations through late morning with VCTS conditions possible
across TXK/ELD after 21/18Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  92  73  91 /  10  40  30  10
MLU  73  90  72  90 /   0  40  20  10
DEQ  70  85  66  84 /  30  70  70  50
TXK  75  89  70  88 /  20  60  60  30
ELD  73  87  68  88 /  10  50  40  20
TYR  76  90  72  89 /  20  40  30  20
GGG  76  90  72  90 /  20  40  30  10
LFK  76  91  74  92 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...05