532
FXUS64 KSHV 251949
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
249 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

As the pseudo-stationary frontal boundary draped across the ArkLaTex
finally begins to push south and east, it will take our persistent
cloud cover with it, along with the scattered chances of showers
and storms. Models have been somewhat inconsistent regarding the
exact timing of the frontal passage, specifically with regard to
whether or not we will see any further convective development this
afternoon, kicked up by the boundary as a forcing mechanism.
Continuing to carry slight chances for our southernmost zones
through early evening.

After 00Z tonight, PoPs drop to near negligible values, and quiet
and dry weather conditions will follow and should persist through
the day Thursday. Clouds look to dissipate as sunset approaches,
with mostly clear skies to follow and continue through Thursday.
The upper level trough responsible for swinging our cold front south
and east this week will deepen over the middle Mississippi
Valley as the week nears its end, to the point of forming a closed
low over eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee by Thursday.

With the cold front finally pushing completely out of the region,
its effects will be noticeable first in the form of cooler than
recent low temperatures to start the day tomorrow, ranging from the
upper 50s north to middle 60s south, followed by highs climbing only
into the low to mid 80s and remaining there for the foreseeable
future.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

While the upper level trough forms a large and deep closed low over
eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee, Hurricane Helene will be
approaching landfall along the Florida panhandle, likely during the
evening hours Thursday. Long-range forecast models have suggested
a Fujiwara effect resulting from their interaction as this week
comes to an end. Specifically, as Helene approaches land and
intensifies, its presence will help amplify the middle Mississippi
low upon approach. As Helene moves inland, it looks to get picked up
by the circulation surrounding the middle Mississippi low, and swung
around to the northwest over the Ohio Valley before ultimately
getting absorbed by the Mississippi low.

The effects of this pattern on ArkLaTex weather will take the form
of renewed showers and storms across our northern zones Friday,
swept in from the north on the western fringes of the upper level
closed low to our northeast. The latest PoP grids keep this activity
mostly to the north of the I-20 corridor, with the possible
exception of some slight chances diving south towards Monroe and
Shreveport Friday afternoon. This activity looks to dissipate
quickly thereafter, lifting north and east Friday evening, with
quiet conditions to follow.

The vast closed low will lift far enough north and east to release
the ArkLaTex from its grasp by the start of the weekend, with dry
and quiet conditions prevailing through to the end of this extended
forecast period. High temperatures may manage to rebound into the
middle 80s but should not much exceed seasonable values,
continuing into next week, with lows remaining in the upper 50s to
lower 60s throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

The combination of a front still mainly stalled across the region
and a disturbance aloft swinging across is producing scattered
clouds and some ceilings will remain sub VFR (mainly MVFR) through
the next few hours. By later this afternoon, the large majority of
scattered to broken cloud deck bases should range from 3 to 6 kft.
Some isolated convection, mainly showers, are possible across
areas at least along and south of I-20 through the afternoon with
the potential for any thunderstorms highest at LFK. Potential for
considerable impact to operations at any area airport is low
enough to keep only "vicinity" mention in the TAFs for now.
Otherwise expect east to northeast winds today from 6 to 12 mph to
relax some tonight with most clouds clearing out. Mostly clear
skies and VFR conditions are anticipated tomorrow with winds from
the north at a range from 6 to 12 mph again. /50/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  86  64  82 /   0   0   0  20
MLU  63  83  63  80 /   0   0  10  30
DEQ  58  83  59  80 /   0   0  10  30
TXK  61  84  61  81 /   0   0  10  30
ELD  58  82  60  77 /   0   0  10  40
TYR  62  86  61  84 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  61  84  60  82 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  65  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...50