Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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385 FXUS64 KSHV 270525 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1225 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 906 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Airmass has been slow to recover this evening following earlier precipitation across the region. Showers and thunderstorms remain fairly active along a weak frontal boundary across portions of north-central Texas and Mississippi. However, the same boundary bisecting the ArkLaTex remains free of convection. This may change, however going into the overnight hours with some high res models suggesting scattered showers and thunderstorms firing along the boundary. Current forecast thinking remains on track with scattered pop wording across areas along and south of I-20 late through late tonight. Otherwise, temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 70s overnight. /05/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Current MCS ongoing across Deep E TX and NCntrl LA has shown signs of weakening over the last hour, although sporadic damaging wind gusts have still been observed with the more organized line over Deep E TX, with the line more ragged farther E across NCntrl LA. This convection should exit the remainder of the CWA in the next 1-2 hours and thus, the SVR Watch should be allowed to be canceled early prior to its 00Z expiration. In its wake, a large cold pool has overspread much of the region, with temps having fallen off some 15-20+ degrees with dewpoints having also cooled 5-10 degrees with its passage as well. Have cancelled the Heat Advisory for areas behind the main line of convection, with the remaining counties likely being cancelled early as well once the convection moves through. The short term progs are in decent agreement with a weak sfc front noted over Nrn AR sagging S overnight, before backdooring SW into portions of NE TX/N LA late tonight. With the short progs handling the current convection so poorly, believe most of the night will be quiet given the more stable air that has settled S, although the presence of the approaching sfc front may help focus isolated to widely scattered convection redevelopment overnight mainly over NCntrl LA and the adjacent sections of Lower E TX, where chance to slight chance pops were maintained. This will be the favored area for convection redevelopment Thursday as well, as the sfc front becomes stationary over this area. However, the center of the upper ridge will begin expanding E into the Srn Plains Thursday, allowing for a deeper wedge of drier air to begin mixing S into the area, thus tapering the convection back by the afternoon and resulting for slightly cooler dewpoints to mix SSW in wake of the front. Am still concerned for the potential for moisture pooling in VC of the stalling front over the W and SW sections of E TX, where hotter temps should exist. Heat indices may reach or exceed 105 degrees over these areas, but given the lack of agreement amongst the majority of the short term progs with the ongoing convection, the placement of the front is of lower confidence and thus, am not confident enough to go with a Heat Advisory until better consensus is reached, hopefully in later model runs. Quiet conditions will return by Thursday night (if not sooner), as the remnants of the front linger over the region. This should result in slightly cooler conditions over much of Srn AR and NCntrl LA. 15 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The long term portion of the forecast remains hot and mostly dry, dominated by the stubborn upper level ridge as it continues to build E over the region Friday and linger through the upcoming weekend. There is enough of a consensus that a weakness aloft will slide S along the Ern periphery of the ridge center Sunday, which may enhance isolated to widely scattered convection development over Srn AR/N LA, where chance/slight chance pops were maintained. Unfortunately, even hotter and drier conditions will return by the first of the new work week once the ridge center expands farther E into the region and Lower MS Valley. Any isolated convection during this time frame would be confined to Deep E TX and NCntrl LA, although near to triple digit temps look to return to much of the area this weekend through next week, thus necessitating the need for additional heat headlines through much of the period. 15 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Most terminals will remain in VFR category for the entire period, sans KLFK and KMLU. Here, MVFR VIS and CIGs will begin around 27/10z. There is also a question regarding TS at some our E. Texas terminals into the morning hours, but I did not have any confidence to carry precipitation at this time. /44/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 93 78 98 80 / 20 0 10 0 MLU 91 74 95 77 / 20 10 10 0 DEQ 92 71 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 93 75 98 79 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 90 71 95 76 / 10 0 10 0 TYR 95 78 98 79 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 94 76 97 77 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 95 76 96 76 / 30 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...44