273
FXUS64 KSHV 231558
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1058 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

No major updates are required to the forecast grids for the
remainder of today. As of the 16Z hour, the ArkLaTex is
experiencing a respite between rounds of convection, as our early
morning storms advance into southern and central Arkansas, while
new convection begins to fire up in Texas south of Waco. Expanded
PoPs further south and west to account for potential impacts from
said Texas storms, and nudged today`s afternoon highs by 1-2
degrees, given more stubborn cloud cover looking to hang on, as
broken skies are overtaken by fresh OVC decks from the southwest.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday Night)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Very active afternoon and evening with strong to severe
thunderstorms across much of the Four State Region on Wednesday
with the key question being...will that continue today and
tonight?

Currently, the low levels are pretty worked over instability wise
but that is not stopping elevated convection across portions of
Deep East Texas, Southwest Arkansas as well as upstream across the
Upper and Middle Red River Valley of S OK. The true frontal
boundary remains stationary across NC TX into SE OK attm but a
large outflow boundary was present across Deep East Texas snaking
its way north and east into N LA with another boundary noted north
of the AR/LA border. These boundaries should washout as we go
through the day but will continue to serve as focuses for at least
isolated to scattered convection this morning until we have time
to destabilize once again this afternoon. When it comes to severe
weather possibilities this afternoon into the evening hours today,
features are a little more subtle than what was present on
Wednesday but having said that, our region remains under WSW flow
aloft and progs are hinting at a couple disturbances embedded in
this flow moving out of the Tx Hill Country and into our region
later today. Moderate to strong instability will be returning to
our region during peak heating and should provide the fuel
necessary for additional strong to severe thunderstorms once again
but maybe not quite as numerous as what we saw on Wed. Still
looks like large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be
the main threats given relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and
Deep Layer Shear values, especially if we can see any discrete
supercell thunderstorms again later in the period. The threat
should subside late tonight as the boundary layer begins to
stabilize.

Friday looks like a carbon copy of today except storm initiation
may be a little further to our west and northwest and given this
possibility, it would be mainly evening variety thunderstorm
chances we would have to deal with across mainly our west and
northwest half. Again, given ample instability, severe
thunderstorms will again be possible with large hail and damaging
wind gusts again the main threats Friday Evening.

The northern half of the Four State Region remains under a Slight
Risk for Excessive Heavy Rainfall and given the relatively high
pwats in place, much like what we saw on Wednesday, cannot rule
out flooding of low lying and flood prone areas through tonight
with much less of a threat for Friday Evening.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Much of Saturday looks pretty much uneventful precipitation wise
at least until late in the afternoon but most likely in the
evening with the ejection of shortwave energy into the Southern
Plains. Much of the forcing in association with this trough
should remain to our west and northwest but during the evening,
can`t rule out some of this activity brushing our far west and
northwest zones, mainly northwest of the I-30 Corridor. Much like
today and Friday, Saturday`s activity will be tied to peak heating
with this activity decreasing in coverage and intensity during
the overnight hours.

Kept pops out of the forecast for the most part on Sunday as the
upper levels undergo a pattern change across the CONUS. Ridging
will become anchored across the Intermountain West as a longwave
trough gets shunted eastward into the Central Plains. This trough
will have a cold front associated with it with this boundary
expected to move south and east through our CWA late in the day
Monday into Monday Night. Reintroduced small pops to coincide with
peak heating on Memorial Day, mainly across our southeast half.

Look for temps not as hot on Tue and Wed across the region even
though the upstream ridge flattens out as it emerges east of the
Intermountain West and into the Great Plains by the end of the
7-day forecast period.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A convective complex will continue to move southeast from
Southeast Oklahoma and across portions of extreme Northeast Texas
and much of Southwest Arkansas. KTXK will most likely be affected,
and model guidance is in good agreement that these storms will
survive long enough to reach KELD early in the period. Beyond
23/18z, the forecast becomes increasingly uncertain. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon hours and move eastward affecting the TAF sites
through the evening and overnight. Confidence is low in this
forecast. If convection develops, it should largely move east out
of the area by 24/04z. However, some of the models suggest another
early morning convective complex will arrive from the northwest
late in the period.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  74  93  74 /  40  40  10  20
MLU  90  70  93  72 /  40  40   0  20
DEQ  84  67  90  68 /  50  70  20  40
TXK  88  71  91  71 /  40  60  20  40
ELD  87  68  91  69 /  40  60  10  30
TYR  88  72  92  73 /  40  50  20  30
GGG  89  71  92  72 /  40  40  10  30
LFK  92  74  94  74 /  40  40   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...09