152
FXUS64 KSHV 030542
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The threat for severe weather has ended for Toledo Bend Country
and our LA Parishes, SVR watch 380 is expired a little early.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Extended pops/wx east into new watch zones and added fog around
daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Thunderstorms continue from Lufkin to Alexandra and under the
upper low comma head near Monroe, but the threat for any further
severe activity other than lightning has weakened and moved out
of our area. This update removes the headlines and no other
changes are needed at this time. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Monday afternoon through the end of the period...

Another severe risk will cover the Ark-La-Tex Monday afternoon as a
Slight Risk has been drawn up across almost all of the SHV
responsible counties and parishes. Quick atmospheric recovery,
along with a persistent NW flow regime, will once again support
the initiation of thunderstorms northwest of the FA, that may
evolve into another bowing MCS, developing a strong cold pool, and
ultimately work into the Four State Region through the mid to
late afternoon and evening of Monday. Model agreement in the short
run is something to take away here as guidance has struggled with
convective initiation and evolution of recent bowing MCS events
over the last week. That being said, main concern here will be the
threat of damaging wind, hail and the chance for a tornado or
two.

Looking beyond Monday, the pattern continues to suggest that NW flow
will hang around through about mid-week as upper ridging builds to
the west across the Four Corners. The subtle influence of the ridge
however may be enough to support a daily increase in MaxT`s as
highs approach the middle 90`s by the end of the period before a
progged frontal passage stops temps from climbing any higher.
Still some uncertainty in the long range on just how much of an
impact the front will bring, but for now it remains something to
look forward to. At the same time, given the NW flow pattern, can
not rule out additional long track bowing segments through the
week. This pattern is one of uncertainty, and something to take
day to day.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

MVFR conditions will continue this evening, although an
approaching MCS over SE OK/N TX will spread SE into the region
this evening, likely affecting much of the region even through a
portion of the overnight hours. Have better timed VCTS with tempo
thunder mention for the affected terminals this evening based on
current extrapolation of the convection, while also adding VCTS in
for ELD by 04Z. This convection may affect MLUby/after 06Z, but
low confidence precludes mention attm, and will address with
amendments or possible the 06Z TAF issuance. This convection
should also leave behind a cold pool bndry over Deep E and SE TX
into WCntrl LA overnight, which will be the primary focus for
isolated to scattered convection once heating increases during the
day Monday. The cold pool associated with the evening/overnight
convection should delay the formation of IFR/low MVFR cigs through
much of the overnight hours, and not occurring until 12Z or later
Monday. Have delayed cig mention until this time for all but
TXK/ELD, where additional scattered convection may develop over SE
OK/portions of SW AR through mid to late morning. Any low cigs
should gradually lift by mid to late morning, with VFR cigs
returning areawide by midday, persisting through the afternoon.
Did add VCTS for the E TX terminals by 20Z, as scattered
convection should again develop by mid-afternoon across Lower E
TX/NCntrl LA. SE winds 4-7kts, except VRB and gusty in/near the
convection, will become S 6-12kts after 15Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  91  75  90 /  10  20  10  40
MLU  73  90  74  89 /  10  20  10  50
DEQ  70  87  71  86 /  20  10  30  30
TXK  72  90  73  88 /  20  10  20  40
ELD  71  89  70  87 /  10  10  10  50
TYR  74  92  74  89 /  20  10  10  30
GGG  74  90  74  89 /  10  10  10  40
LFK  74  91  75  92 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...15