263
FXUS64 KSHV 200531
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1231 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A relaxed pressure gradient from a surface high across the east
coast extending across the Deep South to maintain light winds
tonight. An upper-level ridge prevailing areawide to maintain
stable conditions. Expect mostly clear skies and overnight lows in
the lower 70s. Current forecast is on track, no updated needed at
this time. /05/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The current synoptic pattern is characterized by a strengthening
upper-level ridge axis across the Texas Big Bend region and along
Rio Grande Valley extending northward into the Southern Plains.
This ridge will be the dominant feature through this short-term
period and beyond, driving temperatures even higher on Friday with
mid 90s expected across the vast majority of the region. Much like
today, heat index values will exceed 100 degrees over much of the
region during afternoon peak heating but should remain just below
our heat advisory thresholds, although cannot completely rule out
brief periods where criteria is reached in our southernmost zones
across East Texas and North Louisiana. Overnight low temperatures
will largely range through the lower to mid 70s aside from some
isolated upper 60s across a few of our northernmost locations.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The late summer heat will continue on into the weekend even as we
welcome the first day of autumn on Sunday. Expect lower to mid 90s
for highs both Saturday and Sunday with the upper-level ridge axis
still anchored across the region while a trough begins to dig from
the Rockies eastward into the western Great Plains late on Sunday
into early next week. The trough will help to nudge a cold front
southward into the I-30 corridor late Monday into early Tuesday.

Unfortunately, confidence isn`t particularly high on this front
moving much farther south on Tuesday before stalling out. At a
minimum, the front will serve as a focus for isolated convection
so have held on to low-end PoPs areawide on Tuesday and through
Wednesday given the continued uncertainty with respect to this
frontal boundary and how much progression it will make into the
region by the middle of next week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the 20/06z TAF update...Satellite imagery is showing some high
clouds across southern Arkansas and northeast Louisiana tonight.
Despite this, surface observations continue to spit out SKC for
all of our terminals. Have mention of some SCT250 for much of the
overnight hours for all terminals although I have a tempo group in
for some lower visibility and BR for KMLU and KLFK between 20/10z
to 20/13z. Otherwise, high clouds or SKC will prevail for the rest
of the terminals through this period with generally light winds.
/33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  76  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  94  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  95  70  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  97  74  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  95  70  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  96  74  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  73  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  95  72  93  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...33