325
FXUS64 KSHV 181023
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
523 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...AMENDED
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The remnants of Francine have finally move out of the region, as
it got absorbed by a deepening trough across the Lower Mississippi
Valley and SE CONUS. Mostly clear skies and light winds have
settled across the region in wake of Francine remnants this
morning. Short-term progs suggest these conditions could yield
widespread patchy fog over the area in the next few hours, before
diminishing a couple hours after daybreak. At this time, not
expecting widespread dense fog, but we will monitor this closely.
Upper ridging will start to build into the area today. Partly
cloudy skies and warmer conditions will return to the region, with
highs climbing into the lower 90s areawide. Although drier
conditions are expected areawide, there could be just enough
weakness aloft for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop
today. But, confidence isn`t high enough to include rain chances
in the forecast, so decided to go with a 10 percent POP areawide.

Quiet and warmer conditions will continue into Thursday as the
upper ridge becomes more established across the region. Morning
lows will start off in the upper 60s to lower 70s again, followed
by partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 90s. /20/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Upper ridging is expected to remain in place from the end of the
work week through the early portions of next week. Expect quiet
and mostly sunny conditions during this period, with highs in the
low to mid 90s, and overnight lows remaining in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. As we move into the middle portions of next week, the
ridge will flatten out and start to shift eastward, as an
approaching longwave trough moves into the Southern Plains out of
the Rockies. Long-range progs continue to suggest the trough
could make it into our extreme northern sections as early as
Tuesday evening, just north of the Interstate 30 corridor, resulting
in rain chances across portions of Southeast Oklahoma and
adjacent Southwest Arkansas. The trough and associated cool front
is expected to push into the region on Wednesday, bringing a
return in widespread rain chances. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Dealing with some valley and basin fog this morning with some of
this becoming dense. Any impacts to terminals should be brief with
rapidly improving conditions beyond 14-15z this morning. VFR
conditions should prevail outside these trouble spots and areawide
beyond mid-morning. Look for mostly variable winds below 10kts
today, decoupling this evening. Introduced some patchy MVFR VSBYS
once again after midnight across most terminals.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  93  74 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  90  69  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  89  66  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  89  70  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  89  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  93  73  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  92  73  92  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...13