822
FXUS64 KSHV 161749 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1249 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Made a few minor adjustments to cloud cover over the next few
hours, based on recent trends in satellite imagery. Otherwise, the
forecast appears to be largely on track.

Water vapor imagery this morning continues to show a distinct
vorticity maximum associated with the remnants of Tropical System
Francine near the AR and MS border, with a weak sfc trough
located in the same general vicinity.

These features will remain the focus for the development and
expansion in coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening across the ArkLaTex, especially as the
mid/upper level vort max moves southward into NE LA. Overall
rainfall amounts will be light, generally less than 0.25 inches,
although cannot rule out a few brief, heavier downpours in the
stronger convective cells. Activity will then decrease in coverage
after sunset and into the overnight hours.

With more cloud cover in some areas this morning, especially E TX,
high temperatures may be just shy of current forecast, however, do
expect sun breaks and some scattering to continue through the
afternoon, so will not make any adjustments to temperatures with
this update.

Kovacik

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Francine, currently located
across Central Arkansas, will continue to meander near the region
today. In fact, models suggest it will shift southward into
Southern Arkansas and possibly adjacent Northern Louisiana by this
evening. Because of this close proximity, rain chances will
spread across a large portion of the region today, and possibly
continue into the evening and overnight hours early Tuesday
morning. Most of the precip should fall as light rain showers, but
an isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out. The coverage should
diminish as we lose daytime heating, but some light rain or
drizzle could remain tonight and before daybreak Tuesday. Expect
cooler afternoon temps today because of the rain and cloud cover,
with highs in the low to mid 80s. Could see some slightly warmer
temps across portions of East Texas, generally along and west of a
line from Tyler to Nacogdoches. Lows tonight will once again fall
into the upper 60s to lower 70s under partly to mostly cloudy
skies.

On Tuesday morning, the remnants of Francine will shift southward
along the Louisiana/Mississippi border, with more light rain and
drizzle possible over the area during this period, especially
across our Central Louisiana zones. However, models suggest
Francine remnants will get absorb into a deepening trough across
the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS, as another potential
tropical cyclone moves into that region out of the Carolinas. This
should bring a return in dry conditions, but with clouds remaining
over a good chunk of the region, expect slightly below normal
temps to remain. Highs are forecast to top out in the mid to
upper 80s Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

By Tuesday night, upper ridging will build into the region and
remain in place through the remainder of the upcoming work week.
Expect quiet and mostly sunny conditions during this period, with
highs eventually returning into the low to mid 90s, along with
overnight lows remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As we move
into next weekend, the ridge will get squeezed in between an
approaching longwave trough moving into the Plains out of the
Rockies, and the aforementioned trough that absorbed the remnants
of Francine across the SE CONUS. Most of Saturday will remain dry,
but long-term progs are hinting at the trough pushing to near the
Interstate 30 corridor by Saturday evening and then shifting more
eastward on Sunday, bisecting the region. This would result in
rain chances returning into the region. However, some progs
suggest the ridge will remain firm over the region, keeping the
trough from moving into our area. Decided to introduce slight POPs
over the weekend to be on the safe side. The ridge looks to
return by the early portions of next week, bringing a return in
dry conditions. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A remnant and moist weak lower tropospheric circulation meandering
just east of the Arklatex is wrapping around lower clouds and even
some embedded sprinkles and light rain showers across the region.
Even though most ceilings have now lifted to VFR, there will still
be some pockets of MVFR ceilings through the next few hours.
Isolated storms cannot be ruled out, but any deep convection
should mainly be limited to ELD and MLU. Not expecting any severe
thunderstorm activity. Expect a general improvement in cloud cover
through the afternoon with winds from the north or northeast at 6
to 10 mph. Winds will be light from these general directions
tonight through tomorrow morning, but clouds will thicken and
lower from late evening through the early morning hours, with
flight categories dropping from VFR, to MVFR, to IFR over this
period. The worst conditions should develop across MLU and ELD
where some fog and VLIFR conditions around daybreak cannot be
ruled out. Like today, expect a gradual improvement through the
mid morning through early afternoon hours tomorrow with low level
winds similar to today. /50/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  86  71  92 /  20  10   0   0
MLU  69  85  67  88 /  20  10   0   0
DEQ  66  86  65  90 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  69  86  69  91 /  20  10   0   0
ELD  66  84  65  88 /  20  10   0   0
TYR  70  88  71  94 /  20  10   0   0
GGG  69  86  70  92 /  20  10   0   0
LFK  69  89  71  92 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...50