Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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003 FXUS64 KSHV 241558 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1058 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1054 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The only noteworthy modification necessary at this time was expanding the slight chance PoPs across east Texas further north towards the I-20 corridor through the 18Z hour. Otherwise, the overnight forecast package appears on track. /26/ && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The first cold front of the forecast period has come to a halt, bisecting the region just to the south of I-30. This progression is actually a bit farther east than previously anticipated, which in turn, will push the better rain chances today farther south and east. As we wait for rain chances to increase area-wide tonight ahead of the next longwave trough, the best chance for a shower today will likely be south of the I-20 corridor. Highs today will range in the mid-80s to low-90s, before the cold front drops highs into the low to mid-80s come this time tomorrow. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The long-term still looks to be dominated by two main features: the closed low working south from the Plains, and upcoming tropical system Helene. In the short-term, the closed low will push a stronger cold front through the region, cooling things off into the weekend. However, by the weekend, this closed low will begin interacting with Helene, as the two begin to spin around each other in a Fujiwara interaction. This will allow for some wrap around precipitation in our northern zones into Saturday, before the low`s eventually shift off to the northeast. Here, the low will likely anchor somewhere over the midwest, allowing for dry air to keep working into the region under north flow. Afternoon highs will climb back into a seasonal feel, with the aforementioned dry air helping in keeping overnight lows seasonal for the rest of the long-term as well. /44/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 For the 24/12z TAF update...Satellite imagery and surface observations are showing some low to mid level cloud cover moving across the region. Radar imagery is showing some returns to the west of our area in the DFW metroplex that will slowly move towards our area. I have mention of VCSH and VCTS in for terminals along and south of I-20 today. In addition, mostly cloud to overcast skies are expected throughout the period. /33/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 90 67 82 64 / 10 20 20 10 MLU 91 66 82 62 / 20 20 30 10 DEQ 87 60 83 57 / 0 60 10 0 TXK 88 64 82 60 / 0 40 20 0 ELD 88 63 80 58 / 10 20 30 10 TYR 89 66 82 61 / 20 30 20 0 GGG 89 65 81 60 / 20 30 20 0 LFK 90 68 83 63 / 40 30 30 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...33