126
FXUS64 KSHV 170816
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
316 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Francine will shift southward
today near the Louisiana/Mississippi border. Additional rain
chances will be possible across portions of the region, with the
best chances across our South-Central Arkansas counties and all of
our Louisiana parishes. However, models suggest Francine remnants
will get absorb by this evening into a deepening trough across
the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS, as a surface low moves
into that region out of the Carolinas. With partly to mostly
cloudy skies today, expect slightly below normal temps to remain,
as highs are forecast to top out in the mid to upper 80s.

By Tuesday evening, upper ridging will start to build into the
region in wake of Francine remnants. Clouds should clear out, but
overnight lows will once again fall into the upper 60s to lower
70s. Can`t rule out some patchy fog around daybreak Wednesday
morning. Expect mostly sunny and warmer conditions to return to
the region on Wednesday, with highs climbing into the low to mid
90s.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Upper ridging is expected to remain in place through early next
week. Expect quiet and mostly sunny conditions during this period,
with highs in the low to mid 90s, and overnight lows remaining in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. As we move into early next week, the
ridge will flatten out, as an approaching longwave trough moves
into the Southern Plains out of the Rockies. Long-range progs
suggest the trough could make it into our extreme northern
sections, just north of the Interstate 30 corridor. This would
bring a return in rain chances across portions of Southeast
Oklahoma and adjacent Southwest Arkansas by Tuesday. The remainder
of the area should remain dry, as the ridge is expected to hold
firm over the rest of the region. /20/


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A mix of low VFR, MVFR and IFR ceilings currently across SW AR and
looking for those lowering of ceilings to continue into the
predawn hours across portions of NE TX and N LA as well. Also
concerned with VSBY restrictions across these locations and the
possibility of dense fog across our NE TX terminals towards
sunrise as well. Any VSBY restrictions and/or MVFR/IFR/LIFR
ceilings will gradually lift and/or scatter out by mid to late
morning with VFR conditions prevailing through the end of the TAF
period. While isolated convection will be possible today, coverage
does not warrant a mention with this TAF package. Look for winds
today from the NE to E generally under 10kts through the period.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  72  90  73 /  20   0   0   0
MLU  86  68  89  67 /  20  10  10   0
DEQ  86  66  89  66 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  87  69  90  70 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  85  65  88  65 /  20  10   0   0
TYR  89  71  93  73 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  88  70  91  72 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  90  72  92  72 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...13