945
FXUS64 KSHV 251747
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1247 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Clearing skies across the heart of the ArkLaTex have allowed
temperatures to rapidly warm anywhere from 3-7 degrees in the past
hour. A broken to scattered cloud deck building between the I-30
and I-20 corridors should help to limit runaway heating as it
slides south and east, thus based on this trajectory, nudged
afternoon highs up a bit, but only by a degree or two for most
area locations. Isolated to scattered additional convection is
possible this afternoon along and south of I-20, likely confined
largely to zone south of US-84, which is adequately reflected in
the existing wx grids. Otherwise, ingested the latest several
hours worth of temperature and dew point observations and
interpolated through to 00Z.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to work into the region
today, as longwave troughing and our second cold front continue to
work south. This trough is very progressive in nature, with rain
chances beginning to diminish by the afternoon hours. Once this cold
front finally clears the region, expect the rest of the short-term
to be very pleasant. Dry conditions should remain into the weekend,
with afternoon highs dropping to a much more seasonable feel. The
same can be said for overnight lows, with lows dropping into the
upper-50s to low-60s.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Rain chances will return to the forecast by late Friday morning, as
moisture from now Tropical Storm Helene begins to wrap around the
closed low over the midwest. In turn, the best chances for organized
rain will be along and north of I-20, with dry conditions south.
However, as the low pressure continues to meander NE into the
weekend, then the rain chances will shift NE as well. By Sunday, dry
conditions will return area-wide, with limited rain chances
anticipated for the rest of the long-term. High temperatures will
begin to climb by Sunday as well, with highs returning to the mid to
upper-80s. However, overnight lows will continue to be quite
pleasant, as dry air keeps working into the region under north flow.
Overnight lows will likely continue to range in the mid-50s to mid-
60s.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

The combination of a front still mainly stalled across the region
and a disturbance aloft swinging across is producing scattered
clouds and some ceilings will remain sub VFR (mainly MVFR) through
the next few hours. By later this afternoon, the large majority of
scattered to broken cloud deck bases should range from 3 to 6 kft.
Some isolated convection, mainly showers, are possible across
areas at least along and south of I-20 through the afternoon with
the potential for any thunderstorms highest at LFK. Potential for
considerable impact to operations at any area airport is low
enough to keep only "vicinity" mention in the TAFs for now.
Otherwise expect east to northeast winds today from 6 to 12 mph to
relax some tonight with most clouds clearing out. Mostly clear
skies and VFR conditions are anticipated tomorrow with winds from
the north at a range from 6 to 12 mph again. /50/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  83  63  81 /   0   0   0  20
MLU  62  83  62  80 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  58  82  59  77 /   0   0  10  40
TXK  60  83  61  78 /   0   0  10  30
ELD  58  81  59  76 /   0   0  10  30
TYR  61  84  61  83 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  61  83  60  81 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  63  83  61  84 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...50