400
FXUS64 KSHV 221727
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

As of 10:45 AM, temperatures are already in the upper 80s (even
lower 90s already in some areas) with mostly sunny skies.
Afternoon temperature maximums will reach the mid-to-upper 90s
with light southerly winds. With weather and observed trends
continuing as anticipated, forecast grid adjustments were not
necessary at this time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Upper-level ridging will begin to shift west today, setting the
stage for our extended hot period into next week. Truthfully,
there are only so many ways I can tell you "It`s going to be hot."
Given the lack of anything else in the short-term, I`ll just I`ll
just skip straight to telling you "The long-term is also hot."

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The long-term is also hot.

By Monday, we will likely be looking at our first "area-wide"
issuance for heat hazards, with most of the region reaching heat
advisory criteria. This trend will continue for the next few days,
and may end up lasting the entire week, with heat index values
over 105 degrees. There remains the chance for at least some
relief Wednesday into Thursday, as a trough and cold front begin
to move through the Midwest. This trough may increase shower and
thunderstorm chances across some of the region, but the overall
extent in PoP coverage and total QPF amounts still remains to be
seen.

The pattern will at least somewhat break down into next weekend,
as rain chances return in the afternoon in the form of diurnal sea
breeze convection. However, highs will still likely hold in the
upper-90s, with low-100`s not out of the question.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Surface and upper-level ridge of high pressure to maintain dry
conditions through the TAF period ending 23/18Z. Southwest winds 5
to 10 knots across most locations expected today, becoming light
and variable overnight. Winds forecast to increase to 5 to 10
knots again on Sunday. Otherwise, VFR skies to prevail with few to
scattered clouds possible. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  99  79 100 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  74  98  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  72  97  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  75  99  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  73  98  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  75  97  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  75  96  76  97 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  73  97  75  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...05