248
FXUS64 KSHV 250258 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
958 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Convection has dissipated with the loss of diurnal instability. The
remainder of the night should be precip-free for PoPs were removed
from the forecast for the rest of tonight. Otherwise, mostly clear
skies prevail, which has allowed temperatures to rapidly cool this
evening. Current thinking is conditions are expected to be very
similar on Tuesday as they were today. Peak heat index values were
very close to Excessive Heat Warning criteria across portions of
Northeast and North Central Louisiana. However, it is very
uncertain how much temperatures and dewpoints might change on
Tuesday and how that will affect heat index values. Therefore, the
ongoing Heat Advisory was maintained as is.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Persistence is the best forecast tool to use in the short term as
our area continues to be under the influence of high pressure
aloft and at the surface. Having said that, the current Heat
Advisory that is in effect for our entire Four State Region
through 7pm Tue remains unchanged. Held onto isolated pops this
evening across mainly our eastern half given the higher PWAT in
place and a narrow area of forcing aloft backdooring itself into
our region from the northeast on the northeast side of an upper
ridge axis that remains anchored across the Tx Hill Country. The
center of this ridge will continue to retrograde westward into the
Four Corners Region of the country for Tue but enough of the true
ridge axis will be in place across our region for isolated
convection once again across our eastern third for Tue. By Tue
Night, even the ridge axis appears to retreat enough to our west
that we will be watching a disturbance moving our way from NE OK
and NW AR in northwest flow. NBM is dry but have introduced slight
chance pops across our northwest third after midnight Tue
Night/Wed Morning to account for the possibility of nocturnal
convection associated with this disturbance.

Concerning temperatures, again, persistence is the best tool and
have therefore not strayed too far from NBM MOS with the
exception of local, isolated heat island effects. That is putting
much of our region in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees for minimum
temperatures tonight and again Tue Night. Upper 90s to triple
digit heat will stay with nearly all our area once again for Tue
with afternoon heat indices dangerously close to Excessive Heat
Warning criteria of 110 degrees in some locations on Tue.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Wednesday appears to be the day of the next 7 with the best rain
chances across our region and given how wet our region was in May,
I can`t believe I am hoping that these rain chances only increase
the closer we get to Wed. The player for Wed is the same
disturbance mentioned above in northwest flow and a weak, backdoor
front that may try to make it into at least our northeast zones
late Wed into Wed Night. For now, NBM pops are in the slight
chance/low chance variety and did not stray from these #s but
these values could easily increase if the upper ridge does
retrograde as far west as both the operational GFS/ECMWF suggests.
Obviously an extension to the current Heat Advisory will greatly
depend on the impact from rainfall on Wed but I can easily see an
extension to at least part of the Heat Advisory for Wed.

The remnant upper disturbance that moves through our region late
Wed into Wed Night appears to become a WSW to ENE oriented shear
axis from the Upper Tx Coast into the Lower Miss Valley as upper
ridging begins to expand once again across the Upper and Middle
Red River Valley. This would tend to limit pops to our far
southeast on Thu before upper ridging expands across our entire
region Friday and through the weekend. This will likely mean a
return to Heat Advisory headlines and near triple digit ambient
temperatures. NBM output held onto slight chance pops Sun Aftn
across much of our region even with this depicted underneath the
suppressing effects of the upper ridge. Held onto it for now and
will see if it works its way out of the forecast with future runs
but confidence is not high that we will see much in the way of any
precipitation on Sunday.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

For the 25/00z TAF update...Seeing a few returns continue for
portions of the area on radar this evening. Mainly across central
and northeast Louisiana. Because of this I have added some VCTS in
for KMLU. Only other concern will be for the potential for some
MVFR conditions from lower visibility and CIGs overnight for
portions of east Texas. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail.
/33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80 100  81  99 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  78  99  77  96 /  10  20  10  40
DEQ  75  97  75  95 /  10  10  20  30
TXK  80 100  80  98 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  75  98  76  95 /  10  20  10  40
TYR  78  98  79  97 /   0   0  10  10
GGG  78  98  78  97 /   0  10  10  20
LFK  75  98  76  97 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...33