Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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325 FXUS64 KSHV 181023 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 523 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM...AMENDED (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The remnants of Francine have finally move out of the region, as it got absorbed by a deepening trough across the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS. Mostly clear skies and light winds have settled across the region in wake of Francine remnants this morning. Short-term progs suggest these conditions could yield widespread patchy fog over the area in the next few hours, before diminishing a couple hours after daybreak. At this time, not expecting widespread dense fog, but we will monitor this closely. Upper ridging will start to build into the area today. Partly cloudy skies and warmer conditions will return to the region, with highs climbing into the lower 90s areawide. Although drier conditions are expected areawide, there could be just enough weakness aloft for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop today. But, confidence isn`t high enough to include rain chances in the forecast, so decided to go with a 10 percent POP areawide. Quiet and warmer conditions will continue into Thursday as the upper ridge becomes more established across the region. Morning lows will start off in the upper 60s to lower 70s again, followed by partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 90s. /20/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Upper ridging is expected to remain in place from the end of the work week through the early portions of next week. Expect quiet and mostly sunny conditions during this period, with highs in the low to mid 90s, and overnight lows remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As we move into the middle portions of next week, the ridge will flatten out and start to shift eastward, as an approaching longwave trough moves into the Southern Plains out of the Rockies. Long-range progs continue to suggest the trough could make it into our extreme northern sections as early as Tuesday evening, just north of the Interstate 30 corridor, resulting in rain chances across portions of Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent Southwest Arkansas. The trough and associated cool front is expected to push into the region on Wednesday, bringing a return in widespread rain chances. /20/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Dealing with some valley and basin fog this morning with some of this becoming dense. Any impacts to terminals should be brief with rapidly improving conditions beyond 14-15z this morning. VFR conditions should prevail outside these trouble spots and areawide beyond mid-morning. Look for mostly variable winds below 10kts today, decoupling this evening. Introduced some patchy MVFR VSBYS once again after midnight across most terminals. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 91 73 93 74 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 90 69 91 68 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 89 66 93 68 / 10 0 0 0 TXK 89 70 94 71 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 89 66 92 68 / 10 0 0 0 TYR 93 73 95 73 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 92 71 93 72 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 92 73 92 73 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...13