Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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903 FXUS64 KSHV 251801 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 101 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1055 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The mid-morning sfc analysis indicates sfc riding anchored over the Nrn Gulf, with a stationary front extending farther to the N from SW AL into Cntrl MS along the Mid-South/Mid MS Valley. Sfc obs indicate that low level moisture pooling is evident along and to the W of this front into the Delta region, with 15Z dewpoints still in the upper 70s over NE LA/SE AR. Meanwhile, the center of the upper ridge has retreated W a bit from W TX into the Desert SW, with more of a NW flow aloft evident along the Ern periphery of the ridge over the region. Did see an area of AC cigs in part of a weak shortwave dropping SE around the ridge over SE OK/adjacent Wrn AR, although these cigs have mostly mixed out with strong insolation underway despite the returning stratocu cigs over E TX/WCntrl LA. Some of the hi-res progs still continue to suggest that isolated convection will be possible this afternoon across SW AR/much of N LA in VC of this weak perturbation aloft as it drops SE, and thus have maintained slight chance pops for these areas. Any convection that develops should diminish by or shortly after sunset, as we await additional shortwave energy that should approach the region from the NW late tonight. Max temps this afternoon should be similar to what was observed Monday, albeit slightly cooler across portions of E TX which have been trending 1-3 degrees cooler than 24 hrs ago with the increased stratocu field. However, limited mixing of dewpoints, especially over portions of Srn AR/N LA, will result in heat indices on the high end of Advisory criteria, and possibly entering Warning criteria over the Ern parishes of NCntrl/NE LA. Given the limited coverage of such higher indices, have maintained the Heat Advisory as is, and will continue to monitor through the afternoon. Given the uncertainties as to the extent of any convection/associated cloud cover late tonight and Wednesday, will maintain the Advisory as is for now, and re- evaluate the need for one Wednesday later this afternoon. Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly. 15 && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Upper level ridging will continue to influence most of the region today, but the center of the ridge will shift westward into the Four Corners region of the country. This will put our Southern Arkansas and Louisiana zones on the eastern fringe of the ridge. There could be just enough weakness in these areas for daytime heating to initiate some isolated showers and thunderstorms. So, decided to add slight chance POPs in these areas. For the remainder of the area, a stray shower or two can`t be ruled out with daytime heating. However, despite the rain chances, expect another day of hot and humid temps, with highs ranging again from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. As a result, a Heat Advisory will remain in place through this evening. On Wednesday, the center of the ridge will remain across the Four Corners region. At the same time, the eastern periphery of the ridge is forecast to erode, allowing for northwesterly flow to develop over most of our area. This is where the forecast gets interesting. Most of the HREF models are suggesting that an MCS could develop across Oklahoma and dive south into the region during the morning hours. Later on in the day, progs are suggesting a cool front will try to backdoor into the region, bringing additional precip, before it stalls or washes out across our South-Central Arkansas and adjacent Louisiana zones. Because of the uncertainties with rain, decided to hold off on extending the current Heat Advisory at this time, although there is a decent chance afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s again. 20 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Rain chances may linger across portions of the region Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday morning. However, it looks like drier conditions will try to return, as the upper ridge will try to reestablish itself over the region for the end of the work week into the first half of next weekend. Additional heat products could be issued, as afternoon highs will likely return into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Upper ridging will remain in place on Sunday into the first couple of days of the next work week, but long-range progs are depicting some precip underneath the ridge. Although my confidence is low on the rain chances, decided to leave slight POPS in the forecast, as there is some hint that the ridge could weaken some during this period. Regardless, it still looks like hot and humid conditions will continue, with afternoon highs remaining in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. 20 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR through the rest of today and for most of the overnight with some MVFR cigs around daybreak. There may be a chance for some convection early, based on the GFS/ECMWF models. Others all agree for more of a chance later in the day and into the evening/overnight Wed as a weak backdoor cool front pushes across S AR. S/SW winds will prevail this cycle and may become varied from the N if good amount of rain can help cool the air. Downpours could bring down gusty winds alongside. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 100 80 99 78 / 10 10 20 30 MLU 100 78 97 74 / 20 20 40 40 DEQ 97 74 96 73 / 20 20 40 20 TXK 101 79 98 75 / 20 20 40 30 ELD 98 76 95 72 / 20 20 40 30 TYR 97 79 97 77 / 0 0 10 10 GGG 98 78 98 76 / 10 10 20 20 LFK 98 76 97 76 / 10 10 20 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...24