Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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887 FXUS64 KSHV 020620 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 120 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .UPDATE... Resent the zones for overnight to remove evening pops/wx. .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 114 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 The last of a few remaining showers continue east of I-49 in Grant and LaSalle with a slight chance for another few hours with our 06-12Z pops/wx, highlighting the patchy fog now for most areas before daybreak. No changes needed with new issuance not far away. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The long term pattern, starting Monday, is a story of heat and some "currently" low end precip chances. As the upper trough to the east departs, weak ridging looks to fill in it`s place to start, supporting increasing MaxT`s through the upcoming week, with temperatures gradually climbing with each day before maxing out Thursday afternoon. During the period, can not rule out some afternoon showers and thunderstorms given diurnally driven instability and the chance for outflow driven convective initiation. Guidance does point towards some small shortwaves within the mid-level flow by mid-week which could support some better coverage of PoPs if trends continue. By the end of the period, a cold front will attempt to work into the region, again supporting the chance for PoPs across the zones. How this boundary is impacted by the guidance advertised ridge pattern to the west will dictate how the boundary passage works out. For now though, signs point towards brief relief from temps climbing any higher than currently advertised. Given the discussion surrounding the increase in high temps back to the middle 90`s, higher dew point progression through the week will support an increase in heat index values back towards the triple digits. While no heat products are needed at this time, this will be closely monitored in the coming days. RK && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 For the 02/06Z TAF period, the majority of convection has exited our airspace with all terminals now rain-free to begin the period. In its wake, light winds and rain-soaked soils should help induce patchy fog throughout much of the overnight until after daybreak when improvements should commence. In addition, low stratus will also likely result in MVFR/IFR cigs and possibly LIFR between the 09Z-14Z timeframe. With increased mixing/warming by late morning, expect conditions to return to MVFR and eventually VFR closer to midday with cigs lifting to around 3.5Kft and possibly scattering out a bit more. Light and variable winds overnight will trend more SE on Sunday between 5-10 kts with continued low confidence in any convection. Therefore, this will be re-evaluated in the 02/12Z TAF package. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 71 90 73 91 / 0 30 0 20 MLU 69 89 72 90 / 10 30 0 20 DEQ 66 88 70 86 / 0 30 10 40 TXK 67 90 73 90 / 0 30 10 30 ELD 66 89 70 89 / 0 30 0 30 TYR 69 89 73 89 / 0 30 10 30 GGG 70 90 72 89 / 0 30 10 30 LFK 71 90 74 90 / 0 40 0 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...19