841
FXUS64 KSHV 200457
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1157 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Radar imagery is still showing some showers across portions of the
area this evening so I updated PoPs to account for this trend. I
only kept things going for the next few hours as I anticipate
things continuing to diminish. Otherwise, no other changes were
made to the inherited forecast for tonight. /33/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropically-influenced weather conditions will continue through the
rest of the day across the Four State Region, gradually tapering
off to the beginning of a warming trend. Until then, southeasterly
flow associated with newly-formed Tropical Storm Alberto in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico will instigate precipitation chances
mostly south of the I-20 corridor through this evening. Cloud
cover will break down by tomorrow with temperature
maximums/minimums continuing further above normal in the
mid-90s/mid-70s. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

As Tropical Storm Alberto drifts further into Mexico and away
from the Four State Region, the hottest temperatures of the year
will arrive through the weekend into next week. This is due to
broad ridging across the Eastern U.S. that will intensify and
expand westward into the Southern Great Plains into Saturday,
boosting light easterly surface flow that becomes southerly flow
by Sunday. Long-range guidance still indicates higher chances of
triple-digit temperatures on Sunday and Monday with probabilities
above 15 percent (statistically significant, some areas higher
than 30 percent), especially along and north of the I-20 corridor.
By the middle of next week, this ridge axis will break down
further, opening the door for more diurnal convection that`s
typical for this time of the year.

Heat hazard products continue to become more likely later this
weekend into early next week. Adequate precautions and awareness
are encouraged ahead of time against the elevated potential for
heat illnesses. Starting this weekend, this includes (and is not
limited to) altering outdoor plans, taking frequent breaks if you
must be outside, checking the backseat of your vehicle, and
knowing the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.
/16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions currently prevailing at all terminal sites late
this evening but cannot rule out a brief MVFR or IFR ceiling the
closer we get to sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail
through much of the daytime hours across our airspace. Look for
ENE to ESE winds today near 7-12kts with higher daytime gradient
gusts near 18kts possible.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  95  75  95 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  73  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  72  92  69  93 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  74  95  71  95 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  71  93  69  94 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  75  94  74  94 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  75  93  72  94 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  74  93  72  93 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...13