Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FNUS74 KSHV 241054
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Spot Forecast for CANEY C16 SITE PREP...USFS
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
554 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on September 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (318) 631-3669 ext. 241, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Good Morning Nathan, Temperatures are going to return to more of a
normal value this afternoon as highs will only climb into the
upper 80s. Current thinking is that any shower or thunderstorm
activity will remain confined to areas south of the I-20 corridor,
so shouldn`t anticipate that right now. RH values will start out
high this morning around 95 percent before falling to a minimum of
around 50 percent by this afternoon. Winds will remain out of the
west around ignition time, becoming northwest by this afternoon,
and should remain below 10 mph for sustained and wind gusts
through the day today. Will have the hysplit model in your email
shortly.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Temperature.........70 at ignition...Max 88.
RH..................97 percent at ignition...Min 48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds west at 2 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6200 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...500 meters AGL at ignition...otherwise 152-1890
                    meters AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 13 mph.
Transport winds m/s.West 4 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....13 increasing to 23 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 34 late in the morning increasing
                    to 46 late in the morning increasing to 59
                    increasing to 70 early in the afternoon
                    increasing to 86 increasing to 96 late in the
                    afternoon decreasing to 69.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........24  47  46  57  55  50  51  42  50  35
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0
Temp............70  73  78  81  82  85  86  86  87  86
RH..............97  93  79  72  69  61  57  53  48  48
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   4   5   5   5   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   8   8   10  10  10  8   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.2 2.3 3.1 3.7 4.4 5.6 5.9 6.2 5.7
Mix hgt (km)....0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.8   9   12  12  13  13  13  13  13  10
Trans wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
Trans spd (m/s).4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   4
Dispersion idx..13  23  34  46  59  70  86  97  95  69
LVORI...........6   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 20 percent overnight.
Temperature.........Min 63.
RH..................Max 97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...122-975 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph shifting to the northeast
                    8 to 12 mph after 3 am.
Transport winds m/s.West around 4 meters/second shifting to the
                    northeast 2 to 5 meters/second late in the
                    evening.
Dispersion index....33 decreasing to 3.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........38     56     21     17     38     45
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............0      0      0      0      20     20
Temp............85     74     70     68     66     65
RH..............48     71     78     81     87     90
20 ft wind......NW 3   N 2    N 1    N 1    N 1    N 2
20 ft wind gust.6      6      5      5      5      6
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2    0.4    0.4    0.4    0.4    0.4
Mix hgt (m).....980    120    120    120    120    120
Transport wind..W 9    N 7    N 6    NE 5   NE 7   NE 9
Tran wind (m/s).W 4    N 3    N 3    NE 2   NE 3   NE 4
Dispersion idx..33     0      3      2      2      4
LVORI...........2      3      4      5      6      6

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning,
                    then chance of showers late in the morning.
                    Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent increasing to 30 percent late in the
                    morning, then decreasing to 20 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 80.
RH..................Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 6 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the morning.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...122-1463 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 14 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Northeast 4 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....11 increasing to 24 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 35 late in the morning increasing
                    to 48 early in the afternoon increasing to 59
                    decreasing to 42 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........58     65     69     46     38     38
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............20     20     30     30     20     20
Temp............63     65     69     75     78     79
RH..............97     93     84     69     60     56
20 ft wind......N 3    NE 4   NE 5   NE 5   NE 5   NE 5
20 ft wind gust.8      8      10     8      8      10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4    1.0    1.5    3.0    4.5    4.5
Mix hgt (m).....120    300    460    910    1370   1370
Transport wind..NE 12  NE 10  NE 14  NE 10  NE 8   N 10
Tran wind (m/s).NE 5   NE 4   NE 6   NE 4   NE 4   N 4
Dispersion idx..7      14     27     38     52     58
LVORI...........6      5      4      2      1      1

$$
Forecaster...THORNE
Requested by...Nathan Miller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422951.0/SHV
.DELDT 09/24/24
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL nathan.w.miller@usda.gov