433
FXUS64 KSJT 211111
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
611 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

All of our models continue to depict a similar setup for this
afternoon and evening. A low pressure system will continue moving
east across Arizona and New Mexico. The high pressure across our
region of west Central Texas will keep hot and dry conditions in
place. The center of the high will shift to the southeast.
However, this will not be enough to see any potential rainfall
develop as the rain will remain to our northwest. A dry forecast
with highs in the middle 90s will be the main highlight for today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...Cold front with a good chance for widespread rain Sunday into
Monday...

...Cooler temperatures from Monday through the end of the week...

By Sunday, models are in good agreement with the position of an
upper level low over eastern Colorado. In our area, we will have
strong southwest flow over the area with embedded periodic
shortwave energy. At the surface, a cold front is expected to make
its way south into our area by Sunday evening. Convection is
expected to be ongoing along the front as it moves into our area
during the afternoon hours. As the front and associated convection
moves farther south into west central Texas, it will interact
with precipitable water values nearing 2 inches. The shortwave
energy aloft will help maintain/expand the convection as it moves
through, and the plentiful moisture will result in some of the
storms producing locally heavy rainfall. Although widespread
severe weather is not expected, we will have a Marginal Risk for
severe storms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Wind gusts over
60 mph will be the main concern, but large hail greater than an
inch will be possible along/ahead of the front where greater
instability will be available.

Rain chances are expected to continue into Wednesday, although
uncertainty increases in the forecast. Generally zonal flow
Monday afternoon and evening is expected to produce a relative
lull in precipitation, but isolated to scattered showers will
still be possible. By Tuesday, models disagree on the evolution of
the upper level pattern, but models are in somewhat good
agreement that another upper trough will develop near or just west
of the area. That would result in another round of showers and
thunderstorms from Tuesday night into Wednesday. As for
temperatures go, we will still be well above normal on Sunday with
highs from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Monday through Wednesday
will be significantly cooler behind the cold front, and with rain
chances in the area.

Precipitation chances should exit the forecast from Thursday
through next weekend, with highs near or slightly warmer than
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

MVFR ceilings are likely to develop again overnight tonight and
burn off shortly after sunrise. Gusty winds will then develop,
which will be the other main concern for this TAF period. Overall,
confidence is high in regard to this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     95  73  90  58 /   0   0  50  70
San Angelo  95  73  92  61 /   0   0  30  70
Junction    93  69  91  65 /   0   0  10  40
Brownwood   95  71  92  62 /   0   0  10  50
Sweetwater  95  74  88  58 /   0  10  70  70
Ozona       91  72  88  62 /   0   0  20  60
Brady       92  69  90  64 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41