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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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227 FXUS64 KSJT 190809 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 309 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Early this morning, low level stratus was beginning to build northwest out of the Hill Country and into the area. The quasi- center of Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 (PTC 1) is still well out in the Gulf near the Bay of Campeche. Some of the heavier outer bands of rain have started to work their way onto the Texas Coast as of 230 AM. These will continue to work their way west/northwest through the day. Initial activity across our area will likely be confined to the NW Hill Country where some isolated showers/storms will be possible by the late morning/early afternoon. Hi-resolution guidance is inidicating that a more substantial band of rain will move in during the late afternoon/evening period from the east/southeast. This is expected to gradually move north and west through the overnight hours. There has been some significant differences in how far north this band extends so have kept PoPs pretty low for areas along and north of the I-20 corridor. The heaviest PoPs have been confined to after 00Z Thursday for the Northern Edwards Plateau and NW Hill Country. Due to the tropical system being shunted further south thanks to a southwestward expanding upper ridge across the eastern CONUS, QPF amounts have come down significantly over the past few days with most likely totals less than or right around 0.5 inches for most of the area. If any place is going to see higher totals, it will likely be along and south of the I-10 corridor. Convective activity may lead to locally higher totals but overall, this will likely not be the deluge we hoped for earlier this week. With the cloud cover and rain chances, highs will be on the cooler side, ranging from the low 80s across our southeastern counties to the low 90s further west. Overnight lows will hold in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...Lingering tropical moisture through Thursday, then a drying and warming trend from Friday into mid next week... Potential Tropical Cyclone One, which will likely become Tropical Storm Alberto today, and is forecast to track due west into northern Mexico by Thursday morning. Given this more westerly track, the bulk of heavier precipitation is expected to remain confined to the south and southwestern portions of West Central Texas for Thursday. As the system weakens and track further east as a tropical depression Thursday night, precipitation chances begin to diminish overnight into early Friday morning mainly across the Northern Edwards Plateau. The increased cloud cover will keep cooler temperatures across the area for Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Friday begins a warming and drying trend that will persist into the middle of next week, with afternoon high temperatures on Friday ranging in the mid 80s to mid 90s, then gradually increasing to the mid 90s to near 102 by next Wednesday. Overnight lows will remain fairly steady in the upper 60s to mid 70s through the weekend, and then in the mid to upper 70s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 VFR conditions currently present across the area. MVFR stratus is beginning to build across the Hill Country and will build northwest over the coming hours, impacting all terminals. Unlike yesterday, this are not expected to scatter out later in the day but most sites, besides KJCT, should see ceilings lift to low end VFR by this afternoon. Southeast winds should lose their gusts for at least a few hours overnight before picking back up later this morning, backing to a more easterly direction. Chances for showers will begin to impact our southeastern terminals by late morning/early afternoon, with more substantial shower activity expected to move in later in the evening. Have used latest hi-res guidance for timing but this will likely need to be adjusted with future updates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 87 71 87 71 / 10 30 20 10 San Angelo 90 71 89 71 / 10 40 40 10 Junction 85 71 87 72 / 30 60 30 10 Brownwood 83 72 88 71 / 20 40 10 10 Sweetwater 89 70 87 71 / 10 30 30 10 Ozona 87 69 86 69 / 10 60 50 30 Brady 82 70 85 70 / 30 50 30 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...50