Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
324 FXUS64 KSJT 172307 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 607 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...Continued warmer than normal with dry weather... West central Texas remains under upper level ridging this afternoon. However, to our northwest, a shortwave is moving through eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle region. This is resulting in scattered thunderstorms moving northeast across northeastern New Mexico, and also lee troughing, allowing for a few gusts in our area out of the south and southeast. Although a few isolated showers are possible this afternoon and evening east of a Brownwood to Sonora line, as with yesterday, coverage is expected to be too sparse to be worth mentioning. Otherwise, the warm temperatures will continue, with lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and highs tomorrow in the low to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Upper-level ridging will continue over the area through the rest of the work week, as upper level troughs sit over both the west and east coasts of the United States. This will allow the above- normal temperatures to continue for much of this week, with forecast highs in the 90s. We could start to see a pattern change as the troughing over the west coast moves east. As the short wave trough approaches the southern Rockies, the ridge axis over our area will start to tilt, eventually weakening, and becoming more zonal by early next week. The strength, timing, and exact path of this short wave varies between models, impacting precipitation chances and temperatures for this weekend and early next week. Models have been going back and forth on whether or not this system will push a cold front through West Central Texas late this weekend and early next week. If we see a stronger and more southern track of the low, disturbances could move through aloft ahead of the shortwave, leading to rain chances on Saturday. We could also see a cold front develop and move through the area, leading to better rain chances and slightly lower temperatures for Sunday and Monday. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this system. If the shortwave is weaker and moves further north, we could see a mostly dry forecast for our area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR conditions expected for the overnight hours. Winds out of the southeast will start to come down after sunset but should stay between 5-10 kts overnight. There is a possibility that MVFR ceilings could move out of South Central Texas and into our southern terminals during the morning hours tomorrow. Confidence is medium-low on if this will be patchy or a more solid deck of stratus. For now, have gone with a TEMPO MVFR grouping for KJCT and a prevailing MVFR for KSOA where confidence is slightly higher in at least BKN coverage. Further adjustments will likely need to be made with updated guidance in the 06Z forecast. Winds out of the south/southeast will increase again by mid/late morning with some sites seeing gusts in the 17-22kt range during the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 71 95 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 70 95 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 70 93 73 95 / 10 0 0 0 Brownwood 70 95 72 97 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 72 95 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 70 91 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 70 93 72 94 / 10 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...50