Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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978 FXUS64 KSJT 162305 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 605 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 No significant changes from the previous forecast. The upper level ridge will generally remain over the area through Tuesday, keeping temperatures warmer than normal, and rain chances low. The HRRR and NAMNest do show an isolated shower or two this evening and tomorrow afternoon, but will keep the forecast dry as the coverage is expected to be so sparse that it doesn`t need mentioning. Otherwise, look for lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and highs on Tuesday generally in the mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The large scale pattern over the CONUS through the next several days will be characterized by a broad upper level trough over the western U.S. and an upper level low over the eastern U.S. Upper level ridging will be in place over the southern Plains keeping our area generally dry with warmer than normal temperatures through the remainder of the work week. A weak shortwave will pass overhead on Wednesday, but it appears showers and thunderstorms will remain north of our area. Otherwise, highs will be in the mid 90s with some upper 90s likely on Thursday and Friday. Going into the weekend, the western U.S. upper low will begin to eject eastward across the Rockies. A shortwave trough rounding the base of the low will translate eastward into the Plains on Saturday and Sunday. The exact evolution of this feature will determine rain chances as well as a possible cold front working its way into the region. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty this far out, but will show cooler temperatures by Sunday and Monday along with a slight chance of PoPs. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. East/southeasterly winds will become light and variable for most sites overnight. Winds are then expected to pick up a bit by mid-late morning out of the southeast but should generally stay at or below 10 kts sustained (though some gusts in the 15-17 kt range may be possible for KSJT tomorrow afternoon). Some patchy MVFR stratus may move into KSOA around sunrise tomorrow so have included a TEMPO group for now as confidence is not quite high enough in making it a prevailing group yet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 70 94 72 95 / 10 0 0 0 San Angelo 69 96 72 95 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 68 94 70 93 / 10 0 0 0 Brownwood 68 94 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 71 94 73 95 / 10 0 0 0 Ozona 68 92 71 92 / 10 0 0 0 Brady 69 93 70 93 / 10 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...50