451
FXUS64 KSJT 211759
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1259 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

All of our models continue to depict a similar setup for this
afternoon and evening. A low pressure system will continue moving
east across Arizona and New Mexico. The high pressure across our
region of west Central Texas will keep hot and dry conditions in
place. The center of the high will shift to the southeast.
However, this will not be enough to see any potential rainfall
develop as the rain will remain to our northwest. A dry forecast
with highs in the middle 90s will be the main highlight for today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...Cold front with a good chance for widespread rain Sunday into
Monday...

...Cooler temperatures from Monday through the end of the week...

By Sunday, models are in good agreement with the position of an
upper level low over eastern Colorado. In our area, we will have
strong southwest flow over the area with embedded periodic
shortwave energy. At the surface, a cold front is expected to make
its way south into our area by Sunday evening. Convection is
expected to be ongoing along the front as it moves into our area
during the afternoon hours. As the front and associated convection
moves farther south into west central Texas, it will interact
with precipitable water values nearing 2 inches. The shortwave
energy aloft will help maintain/expand the convection as it moves
through, and the plentiful moisture will result in some of the
storms producing locally heavy rainfall. Although widespread
severe weather is not expected, we will have a Marginal Risk for
severe storms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Wind gusts over
60 mph will be the main concern, but large hail greater than an
inch will be possible along/ahead of the front where greater
instability will be available.

Rain chances are expected to continue into Wednesday, although
uncertainty increases in the forecast. Generally zonal flow
Monday afternoon and evening is expected to produce a relative
lull in precipitation, but isolated to scattered showers will
still be possible. By Tuesday, models disagree on the evolution of
the upper level pattern, but models are in somewhat good
agreement that another upper trough will develop near or just west
of the area. That would result in another round of showers and
thunderstorms from Tuesday night into Wednesday. As for
temperatures go, we will still be well above normal on Sunday with
highs from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Monday through Wednesday
will be significantly cooler behind the cold front, and with rain
chances in the area.

Precipitation chances should exit the forecast from Thursday
through next weekend, with highs near or slightly warmer than
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR conditions expected through much of tonight, with MVFR
ceilings expected across the southern terminals after 10Z,
as stratus develops. Stratus should persist through the late
morning/early afternoon hours, so will keep MVFR ceilings in the
forecast through 18Z. Expect south winds gusting to around 20
knots this afternoon, diminishing by early evening. A cold front
will approach from the north tomorrow but will not impact the
terminals until late tomorrow afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  89  58  77 /   0  60  70  20
San Angelo  73  91  61  78 /   0  50  80  30
Junction    70  91  65  83 /   0  10  40  30
Brownwood   71  92  63  80 /   0  20  50  30
Sweetwater  74  87  58  77 /  10  70  70  20
Ozona       72  88  63  78 /   0  30  70  40
Brady       70  91  64  79 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24