508
FXUS64 KSJT 171845
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
145 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...Mostly dry with above normal temperatures today...

Another day much like what we saw on Monday, with above normal
highs in the low to mid 90s across the area. Some of the hi-res
models show a very few isolated showers briefly late this
afternoon across portions of the Hill Country and Heartland, but
chances remain very very small. Most of the models are dry and
given the very low chances, will not include a mention at this
time. Lows tonight struggle to drop below the 70 degree mark.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Upper-level ridging will continue over the area through the rest of
the work week, as upper level troughs sit over both the west and
east coasts of the United States. This will allow the above-normal
temperatures to continue for much of this week, with forecast highs
in the 90s. We could start to see a pattern change as the troughing
over the west coast moves east. As the short wave trough approaches
the southern Rockies, the ridge axis over our area will start to
tilt, eventually weakening, and becoming more zonal by early next
week. The strength, timing, and exact path of this short wave varies
between models, impacting precipitation chances and temperatures for
this weekend and early next week. Models have been going back and
forth on whether or not this system will push a cold front through
West Central Texas late this weekend and early next week. If we see
a stronger and more southern track of the low, disturbances could
move through aloft ahead of the shortwave, leading to rain chances
on Saturday. We could also see a cold front develop and move through
the area, leading to better rain chances and slightly lower
temperatures for Sunday and Monday. However, there is still quite a
bit of uncertainty with this system. If the shortwave is weaker and
moves further north, we could see a mostly dry forecast for our
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR conditions expected through most of the next 24 hours. Models
hint at the possibility of some MVFR ceilings at KSOA for a couple
hours Wednesday morning. Will hold off on introducing anything at
this time, and let future forecasts address this. Otherwise,
south to southeast winds around 10 knots this afternoon, with a
few gusts to around 15 knots. Winds will diminish to less than 10
knots after 00Z tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     95  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  95  70  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    95  70  93  73 /  10  10   0   0
Brownwood   95  70  95  72 /  10  10   0   0
Sweetwater  95  72  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       92  70  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       93  70  93  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...20