Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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671 FXUS64 KSJT 210805 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 305 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Similar to yesterday, high dewpoints in the 60s and low 70s and above-normal temperatures are combining to make very uncomfortable conditions with heat indices in the upper 90s to near 105. Tomorrow will be a bit more bearable, temperature wise, as an upper low approaches from the west. The low is currently sitting over southern California and is forecast to push eastward towards the four corners region tomorrow. As it does this, the ridge will start to break down slightly. This will allow our temperatures to decrease by a few degrees, keeping our heat indices below 100 degrees for most of the region. Winds will be gusty tomorrow afternoon again, with gusts around 20 to 30 mph. The precipitation ahead of the previously mentioned upper low is expected to remain to our north and west tomorrow, leaving us with a dry forecast for Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...Cold front with a good chance for widespread rain Sunday into Monday... ...Cooler temperatures from Monday through the end of the week... By Sunday, models are in good agreement with the position of an upper level low over eastern Colorado. In our area, we will have strong southwest flow over the area with embedded periodic shortwave energy. At the surface, a cold front is expected to make its way south into our area by Sunday evening. Convection is expected to be ongoing along the front as it moves into our area during the afternoon hours. As the front and associated convection moves farther south into west central Texas, it will interact with precipitable water values nearing 2 inches. The shortwave energy aloft will help maintain/expand the convection as it moves through, and the plentiful moisture will result in some of the storms producing locally heavy rainfall. Although widespread severe weather is not expected, we will have a Marginal Risk for severe storms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Wind gusts over 60 mph will be the main concern, but large hail greater than an inch will be possible along/ahead of the front where greater instability will be available. Rain chances are expected to continue into Wednesday, although uncertainty increases in the forecast. Generally zonal flow Monday afternoon and evening is expected to produce a relative lull in precipitation, but isolated to scattered showers will still be possible. By Tuesday, models disagree on the evolution of the upper level pattern, but models are in somewhat good agreement that another upper trough will develop near or just west of the area. That would result in another round of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday night into Wednesday. As for temperatures go, we will still be well above normal on Sunday with highs from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Monday through Wednesday will be significantly cooler behind the cold front, and with rain chances in the area. Precipitation chances should exit the forecast from Thursday through next weekend, with highs near or slightly warmer than normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 MVFR ceilings are likely to develop again overnight tonight and burn off shortly after sunrise. Gusty winds will then develop, which will be the other main concern for this TAF period. Overall, confidence is high in regard to this forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 95 73 90 58 / 0 0 50 70 San Angelo 95 73 92 61 / 0 0 30 70 Junction 93 69 91 65 / 0 0 10 40 Brownwood 95 71 92 62 / 0 0 10 50 Sweetwater 95 74 88 58 / 0 10 70 70 Ozona 91 72 88 62 / 0 0 20 60 Brady 92 69 90 64 / 0 0 10 40 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AP LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...41