020
FXUS64 KSJT 300546
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1246 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Not really much to add to the ongoing short term forecast as the
hot and dry conditions continue. More cloud cover today has
somewhat limited temperatures, but there has been some small
decrease in thickness values and 850mb temperatures as well.
Models suggest some of this drop will continue Sunday well, with
guidance temperatures mainly in the 98-102 range. Have gone above
guidance a degree or two but this is still cooler than what we
have been looking at most of the last week. With that in mind,
will probably trip back the Heat Advisory along the western
counties some, where lower dewpoints will keep Heat Index values
down a few degrees verse what we will be looking at across the
area east of an Abilene to Brady line.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The main weather concern over the next week will be the heat. The
upper level ridge will continue to sit over our area and dominate
our weather for most of the long term period. The ridge will start
to shift eastward on Tuesday, and will eventually start to weaken as
a shortwave trough moves over the northern U.S. Thursday into
Friday. Temperatures will stay above-normal, with much of the area
in the triple digits, for most of the work week. Surface winds
should generally remain from the south/southeast keeping moisture
and heat index values high. Looking at the Fourth of July
specifically, forecast highs are in the upper 90s to around 105
degrees, with heat index values around 107 in some areas. San Angelo
and Abilene are forecast to be in the extreme category for both WBGT
and Heat Risk for the fourth. So, there will be a very high risk for
heat-related impacts for those that celebrate outdoors. There is a
slight chance for precipitation in the northern Big Country late
Thursday evening and overnight. But chances look better for later
Friday and into Saturday.

A surface low is expected to develop over the northern U.S. as the
shortwave moves over that area. We could see a weak cold front,
associated with that low, move through Friday into Saturday.
Precipitation will be possible along the front as it moves south.
We`ll have a better idea on timing and amounts as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions until MVFR ceilings develop around sunrise.
Ceilings clearing out by 15Z with south to southeast winds
increasing for the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     99  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 101  75 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    98  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   98  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 100  77 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       97  73  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       95  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coleman-Concho-Haskell-Jones-McCulloch-Runnels-San Saba-
Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...SK