227
FXUS64 KSJT 190809
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
309 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Early this morning, low level stratus was beginning to build
northwest out of the Hill Country and into the area. The quasi-
center of Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 (PTC 1) is still well out in
the Gulf near the Bay of Campeche. Some of the heavier outer bands
of rain have started to work their way onto the Texas Coast as of
230 AM. These will continue to work their way west/northwest through
the day. Initial activity across our area will likely be confined to
the NW Hill Country where some isolated showers/storms will be
possible by the late morning/early afternoon. Hi-resolution guidance
is inidicating that a more substantial band of rain will move in
during the late afternoon/evening period from the east/southeast.
This is expected to gradually move north and west through the
overnight hours. There has been some significant differences in how
far north this band extends so have kept PoPs pretty low for areas
along and north of the I-20 corridor. The heaviest PoPs have been
confined to after 00Z Thursday for the Northern Edwards Plateau and
NW Hill Country. Due to the tropical system being shunted further
south thanks to a southwestward expanding upper ridge across the
eastern CONUS, QPF amounts have come down significantly over the
past few days with most likely totals less than or right around
0.5 inches for most of the area. If any place is going to see
higher totals, it will likely be along and south of the I-10
corridor. Convective activity may lead to locally higher totals
but overall, this will likely not be the deluge we hoped for
earlier this week. With the cloud cover and rain chances, highs
will be on the cooler side, ranging from the low 80s across our
southeastern counties to the low 90s further west. Overnight lows
will hold in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...Lingering tropical moisture through Thursday, then a drying
and warming trend from Friday into mid next week...

Potential Tropical Cyclone One, which will likely become Tropical
Storm Alberto today, and is forecast to track due west into
northern Mexico by Thursday morning. Given this more westerly
track, the bulk of heavier precipitation is expected to remain
confined to the south and southwestern portions of West Central
Texas for Thursday. As the system weakens and track further east
as a tropical depression Thursday night, precipitation chances
begin to diminish overnight into early Friday morning mainly
across the Northern Edwards Plateau. The increased cloud cover
will keep cooler temperatures across the area for Thursday, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s
to low 70s.

Friday begins a warming and drying trend that will persist into
the middle of next week, with afternoon high temperatures on
Friday ranging in the mid 80s to mid 90s, then gradually
increasing to the mid 90s to near 102 by next Wednesday. Overnight
lows will remain fairly steady in the upper 60s to mid 70s through
the weekend, and then in the mid to upper 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions currently present across the area. MVFR stratus is
beginning to build across the Hill Country and will build
northwest over the coming hours, impacting all terminals. Unlike
yesterday, this are not expected to scatter out later in the day
but most sites, besides KJCT, should see ceilings lift to low end
VFR by this afternoon. Southeast winds should lose their gusts for
at least a few hours overnight before picking back up later this
morning, backing to a more easterly direction. Chances for showers
will begin to impact our southeastern terminals by late
morning/early afternoon, with more substantial shower activity
expected to move in later in the evening. Have used latest hi-res
guidance for timing but this will likely need to be adjusted with
future updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     87  71  87  71 /  10  30  20  10
San Angelo  90  71  89  71 /  10  40  40  10
Junction    85  71  87  72 /  30  60  30  10
Brownwood   83  72  88  71 /  20  40  10  10
Sweetwater  89  70  87  71 /  10  30  30  10
Ozona       87  69  86  69 /  10  60  50  30
Brady       82  70  85  70 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...50