112
FXUS64 KSJT 271739
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1239 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 452 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

It will be a hot Memorial Day across west central Texas. Highs
will top out around 101-106 degrees across the western Concho
Valley down into the northern Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will
be slightly cooler over the northern Big Country north of a weak
frontal boundary. Otherwise, SPC has areas east of a Merkel to
Ballinger to Sonora line in a marginal risk for severe storms this
afternoon. Upper level forcing will be fairly negligible and
convergence along the dryline will be marginal. As a result CAMS
only show a few storms developing mainly across our southeastern
counties where the more favorable moisture will reside. Any storm
that does develop will likely go severe due to CAPE values of
greater than 3000 J/KG. Large hail would be the main hazard.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...Unsettled weather expected this week...

Rain chances will increase across the area beginning Tuesday and
persisting through the rest of the week. For Tuesday, the threat
for severe storms will increase across much of the area. A stalled
frontal boundary is expected to be over the Big Country on
Tuesday, with a dryline extending south of the front across West
Texas. Despite weak mid level riding over the area, models
indicate several disturbances propagating through the flow aloft
by late afternoon/early evening. Strong to extreme instability
will be in place across the area by late afternoon, with CAPE`s
3000 to 4000+ J/kg per latest model data.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front and dryline
Tuesday afternoon, with renewed convection possible over the area
into the evening hours. Currently, there is a slight risk for
severe storms for much of the area Tuesday afternoon/evening, with
large to very large hail and damaging winds the main severe
hazards, although and isolated tornado is also possible. Will
maintain medium to low end high POP`s across the area Tuesday
into Tuesday night. In additional to the severe threat, PW values
will be high (1.5 to 2.0 inches), which will contribute to
torrential downpours and a threat for localized flooding.

The overall pattern changes little Wednesday through the end of
the week, with a medium chance for showers and thunderstorms
persisting through the period. While at least some threat for
severe storms may exist just about each day, the threat for
additional heavy rainfall and flooding may be more of a concern,
as a very moist airmass persists across the area. Precipitation
chances will decrease by the weekend, but isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible
Saturday and Sunday, so will maintain low POPs across the area.
As for temperatures, we finally get a break from the oppressive
heat this week, with daytime highs mainly in the mid/upper 80s to
lower 90s from Wednesday through the weekend, although highs may
not get out of the 70s across the Big Country on Wednesday.
Overnight lows will predominantly be in the 60s through the
extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Mainly VFR conditions with light southerly winds are expected for
the rest of the day through tomorrow morning. An isolated storm
or two will be possible late this afternoon or evening, but this
was left out of the TAFs, except for Junction, due to low
confidence.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  91  66  80 /  10  60  60  50
San Angelo  71  97  67  89 /  10  50  50  50
Junction    71  99  69  93 /  30  30  50  40
Brownwood   69  89  67  80 /  20  50  70  50
Sweetwater  71  94  66  80 /  10  60  50  50
Ozona       72  94  67  91 /  10  40  40  30
Brady       70  91  67  83 /  20  40  60  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...SK