585
FXUS64 KSJT 111916
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
216 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the
Permian Basin this afternoon, with this activity moving to the
east- northeast toward western portions of our area. Additional
showers and storms may develop through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening, with the highest PoPs concentrated across
the northwestern half of the area. Most storms will remain below
severe levels due to marginal instability, but some large hail to
the size of quarters will be possible with the strongest storms.
Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible under the stronger
cells. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop
overnight and into Sunday morning as another shortwave embedded in
the southwest flow moves overhead. Again, a few of these storms
could be on the strong side with large hail the primary hazard.
Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will also be
possible. Rain chances will come to an end by Sunday evening as
the shortwave moves off to the east. A few areas mainly across our
eastern counties could pick up over an inch of rainfall but most
areas will remain below an inch. Temperatures will remain in the
70s and 80s on Sunday, with the warmest temperatures across the
western Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Expect a mainly dry and warmer forecast for early this week as
upper 500 MB heights increase and our area is in the surface warm
sector. Highs will be in the 80s to lower 90s Monday and Tuesday.
The next upper level disturbance is due in by middle of this week
and at the surface will see a dryline moving into our area by
late Wednesday afternoon and a weak cool front/dryline
intersection near the Northern Edwards Plateau by Thursday
morning. Also, moderate/strong instability will be over much of
the area with some vertical wind shear. As a result, expect a few
rounds of scattered to numerous thunderstorms Wednesday evening
through Thursday. The month of May is the peak of severe weather
season, so can not rule out a few severe storms. Also, northern
and eastern areas are in a slight risk of excessive rainfall 12Z
Wednesday through 12Z Thursday. Going with mainly medium chances
of rain. Look for dry and warmer weather Friday and next Saturday,
with highs in the mid to upper 90s possible Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later this
afternoon and evening mainly across the western half of the area.
Confidence was not high enough to place a mention of thunder at
any of the terminals but will monitor radar trends the rest of the
afternoon and amend as necessary. A better chance of more
widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur on Sunday morning
as an upper level disturbance moves across the region. Otherwise,
ceilings will lower back down to MVFR/IFR levels overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     62  77  61  84 /  50  90  20   0
San Angelo  64  85  61  90 /  50  60  10   0
Junction    66  86  65  93 /  50  50  10  10
Brownwood   64  76  64  85 /  50  90  30  10
Sweetwater  62  80  60  85 /  50  80   0   0
Ozona       65  85  61  89 /  40  30  10   0
Brady       65  78  65  85 /  50  80  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...42