992
FXUS64 KSJT 231902
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
202 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

An upper level trough axis is currently swinging through our area as
showers and storms across the NW Hill Country continue to weaken and
push east early this afternoon. Low clouds are starting to mix out
with some clearing possible across the Big Country later in the
afternoon. Temperatures so far have been held in the upper 60s but
with some clearing expected and plenty of peak heating time left,
will hold off on adjusting today`s highs for the time being. Chances
for rain will continue tonight, mainly for areas south of I-20, as
the cold front begins to lift back north overnight and weak
shortwave impulses pass overhead. Members of the 12Z HREF continue
to differ on the amount of development and time of initiation so
have capped PoPs in the low-end chance category. Though northerly
surface flow is decreasing available moisture across the area, pWats
are forecasted to stay above 1.25 inches south of the Big Country
through tomorrow afternoon. We could see some additional development
tomorrow afternoon across our southeastern counties, even as the
surface boundary begins to wash out, with the help of some increased
upper level support. With clearing skies to the north, highs
tomorrow will be warmest across the Big Country, where temperatures
will climb into the upper 80s, approaching 90 degrees. Elsewhere,
with increased cloud cover and rain chances, temperatures will hold
in the lower to mid 80s. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s
to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Another strong low pressure system will move across the eastern
portions of the Great Plains on Wednesday. This will swing another
cold front into the area on Wednesday, which will keep
temperatures a bit cooler for the remainder of the work week. High
temperatures look to be in the upper 70s to middle 80s. This
portion of the forecast is the part we are highly confident in.

What is less certain, however, is the track of this upper level
low pressure system. Our models show some interaction of this low
pressure with a tropical system moving inland over the
southeastern U.S. This interaction may shift the track of the
main upper level low pressure and/or tropical system. The
attendant rainfall will be highly dependent upon this support.
Given the most recent models runs, some rainfall across our area
seems reasonable. However, chances will remain lower (30-40%)
until better confidence is had. Our models have become a bit lower
with respect to the rainfall totals as well. It`s worth noting
that the Weather Prediction Center has removed west Central Texas
from another Marginal Risk (5% chance) of excessive rainfall
leading to flash flooding on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rainfall
totals of a couple tenths to a half an inch may not support as
much of a risk of flash flooding. We will have to keep an eye on
this scenario for changes in the next day or two.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

IFR conditions are currently present at all terminals across the
area. Rain showers are still impacting the KJCT terminal as of 18Z
but these are weakening and moving off to the east, causing
little impact to visibilities. Ceilings are expected to improve
over the next few hours, gradually lifting back VFR by late
afternoon. Another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings will be possible
for KABI, KSJT, and KBBD tomorrow morning between 10-18Z. Showers
and storms will also be possible for these sites during that
timeframe but have left mentions of these out for now due to
continued low confidence in development. Light northerly winds
this afternoon will become light and variable for all terminals
overnight through tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     61  87  63  82 /  20  20  30  10
San Angelo  65  88  65  84 /  30  20  30  10
Junction    65  87  65  85 /  20  30  30  20
Brownwood   64  86  63  82 /  30  30  30  10
Sweetwater  63  88  65  82 /  10  10  20  10
Ozona       64  86  65  85 /  20  20  20  10
Brady       65  85  64  82 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...50