Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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043 FXUS64 KSJT 261835 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 135 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Drier west to northwest air was moving in behind a surface trough/Pacific front located from Junction to Brady to Brownwood at noon, where dew points were in the lower 70s. A few cumulus were developing in this area, but it should remain capped as the drier air moves in. The drier air will be only temporary, however, as southeasterly winds return, bringing dew points back into the 60s to near 70s from Junction to Brownwood in the morning Monday and into the eastern Big Country east of an Abilene to Throckmorton line in the afternoon. Added a slight chance of thunderstorms from Junction to Menard to Brownwood in the afternoon, where the NAM NEST and HRR models hint at afternoon convection. A few storms may develop later in the evening along east of a Junction to Abilene to Haskell line, where SPC has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 For Monday night, isolated thunderstorms are possible east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to Sonora line. Any storm that does develop will probably become severe due to extreme instability and good vertical wind shear. The main hazards will be large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Going back into a wet pattern for mainly northern and eastern areas by middle of this week. Thunderstorms will fire along a dryline to our west Tuesday afternoon and move into our area during the late afternoon and evening hours. There will be extreme instability and good deep layer shear in the warm/moist sector. As a result, a few storms may be severe Tuesday, especially west of Sweetwater to Ballinger to Junction line. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. The chance of rain will increase Tuesday through Thursday. The combination of a wavy frontal boundary, upper level disturbances moving by and PW values of 1.25 to 1.75 inches will result in a few rounds of thunderstorms, possible MCS`s. Going with medium chance Pops across much of the area, but the Pops may increase as we get closer. Also, a few severe storms are possible mainly Wednesday as we are in the peak of severe weather season. Again, the heaviest rainfall(locally 2 to 4 inches possible) looks to be east of a Mertzon to Sonora line where flooding is possible for Tuesday night through Thursday. The WPC Excessive Rainfall outlook has much of our area in a slight risk Tuesday and Tuesday night and then marginal Wednesday. Still isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible next weekend. For temperatures, the warmest day will be Tuesday with highs mainly in the 90s and then cooler by middle of this week, with highs only in the lower 80s across the Big Country Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Dry west to northwest winds will bring VFR conditions to the region and tonight, but MVFR haze possible at KJCT towards 12Z Monday as moisture and haze from South Texas begins to return. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 66 99 70 90 / 0 0 20 60 San Angelo 63 103 71 96 / 0 0 10 50 Junction 68 106 70 98 / 0 20 20 30 Brownwood 65 97 70 89 / 0 20 20 50 Sweetwater 66 100 72 92 / 0 0 10 70 Ozona 66 103 73 95 / 0 0 10 40 Brady 65 98 70 91 / 0 20 20 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...04