035
FXUS64 KSJT 240158
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
858 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Did an update, mainly to remove rain chances before 1 AM tonight.
Skies have cleared, and there is nothing indicated for any showers
or thunderstorms will develop over the next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

An upper level trough axis is currently swinging through our area as
showers and storms across the NW Hill Country continue to weaken and
push east early this afternoon. Low clouds are starting to mix out
with some clearing possible across the Big Country later in the
afternoon. Temperatures so far have been held in the upper 60s but
with some clearing expected and plenty of peak heating time left,
will hold off on adjusting today`s highs for the time being. Chances
for rain will continue tonight, mainly for areas south of I-20, as
the cold front begins to lift back north overnight and weak
shortwave impulses pass overhead. Members of the 12Z HREF continue
to differ on the amount of development and time of initiation so
have capped PoPs in the low-end chance category. Though northerly
surface flow is decreasing available moisture across the area, pWats
are forecasted to stay above 1.25 inches south of the Big Country
through tomorrow afternoon. We could see some additional development
tomorrow afternoon across our southeastern counties, even as the
surface boundary begins to wash out, with the help of some increased
upper level support. With clearing skies to the north, highs
tomorrow will be warmest across the Big Country, where temperatures
will climb into the upper 80s, approaching 90 degrees. Elsewhere,
with increased cloud cover and rain chances, temperatures will hold
in the lower to mid 80s. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s
to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Model consensus shows two prominent upper-level features will likely
affect the weather pattern in west central Texas for Wednesday
through the weekend.  An upper-level trough looks to push a cold
front into the region on Wednesday and produce some chances for
showers and a few thunderstorms.  This feature should move out of
Texas and into the Mississippi Valley by Wednesday night. Meanwhile,
a broad ridge should build in across New Mexico and west Texas.
Models show that a piece of the upper trough should spin off and
become a closed low over the Mid-South by Thursday and potentially
spin in place through the weekend. West central Texas looks to be
right in between these two features. Normally, this would lead to a
dry and sunny forecast for the next five days. However, the forecast
becomes a bit trickier beyond Thursday, depending the evolution and
placement of the closed upper low.  A strong tropical system looks
to develop into a hurricane and move into the southeast US by
Thursday night.  After this storm moves inland, it will likely merge
with the closed low over the Mid South this weekend.  The big
question is how much moisture from the anticipated hurricane will
get wrapped into the closed low and will the closed low retrograde
further west when these two systems congeal?  The answers to both
could lead to additional rain chances for west central Texas for
late this weekend into early next week. For now, the forecast will
remain dry with temperatures at or slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Stratus was dissipating early this evening. With a moist boundary
layer in place and recent rainfall, expect a return of IFR stratus
late tonight 10-12Z time frame across most terminals. If the
stratus does not form, there may be areas of IFR fog. Models are a
divergent, so will have the stratus returning with MVFR fog.
Isolated showers, possibly a thunderstorm, possible mainly after
midnight through the day Tuesday. Added VCSH to KBBD where the
potential is greatest. Stratus should dissipate mid morning to
noon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     61  87  63  82 /  20  20  30  10
San Angelo  65  88  65  84 /  30  20  30  10
Junction    65  87  65  85 /  20  30  30  20
Brownwood   64  86  63  82 /  30  30  30  10
Sweetwater  63  88  65  82 /  10  10  20  10
Ozona       64  86  65  85 /  20  20  20  10
Brady       65  85  64  82 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...04