Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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508 FXUS64 KSJT 171845 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 145 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 238 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...Mostly dry with above normal temperatures today... Another day much like what we saw on Monday, with above normal highs in the low to mid 90s across the area. Some of the hi-res models show a very few isolated showers briefly late this afternoon across portions of the Hill Country and Heartland, but chances remain very very small. Most of the models are dry and given the very low chances, will not include a mention at this time. Lows tonight struggle to drop below the 70 degree mark. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Upper-level ridging will continue over the area through the rest of the work week, as upper level troughs sit over both the west and east coasts of the United States. This will allow the above-normal temperatures to continue for much of this week, with forecast highs in the 90s. We could start to see a pattern change as the troughing over the west coast moves east. As the short wave trough approaches the southern Rockies, the ridge axis over our area will start to tilt, eventually weakening, and becoming more zonal by early next week. The strength, timing, and exact path of this short wave varies between models, impacting precipitation chances and temperatures for this weekend and early next week. Models have been going back and forth on whether or not this system will push a cold front through West Central Texas late this weekend and early next week. If we see a stronger and more southern track of the low, disturbances could move through aloft ahead of the shortwave, leading to rain chances on Saturday. We could also see a cold front develop and move through the area, leading to better rain chances and slightly lower temperatures for Sunday and Monday. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this system. If the shortwave is weaker and moves further north, we could see a mostly dry forecast for our area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR conditions expected through most of the next 24 hours. Models hint at the possibility of some MVFR ceilings at KSOA for a couple hours Wednesday morning. Will hold off on introducing anything at this time, and let future forecasts address this. Otherwise, south to southeast winds around 10 knots this afternoon, with a few gusts to around 15 knots. Winds will diminish to less than 10 knots after 00Z tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 95 71 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 95 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 95 70 93 73 / 10 10 0 0 Brownwood 95 70 95 72 / 10 10 0 0 Sweetwater 95 72 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 92 70 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 93 70 93 72 / 10 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...20