002
FXUS64 KSJT 161053
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
553 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The latest radar imagery indicates storms over eastern NM and the
western South Plains. A few Hi-Res models indicated a few
showers/storms may make into the Concho Valley this morning and will
keep an eye on radar trends for possible low end Pops, but going
with a dry forecast for now. Otherwise, going with hot and dry
forecast today with highs in the mid 90s to around 100. Also,expect
gusty south to southeast winds at times during the next 24 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...Warm and windy start to the long-term with a much cooler and
wetter pattern anticipated by late in the work week...

By Monday, an upper level ridge will strengthen across the
eastern/southeastern CONUS. West Central Texas will be on the far
left edge of this regime but this should act to keep any shortwave
impulses off to our north and west. As such, the rinse-and-repeat
pattern of late will continue into the day on Monday. Temperatures
will range from the lower 90s across the Heartland to the upper
90s/around 100 across the western Concho Valley under partly to
mostly clear skies. Winds will be gusty out of the southeast as a
strong surface low develops across the North Central Rockies,
tightening the pressure gradient for much of the Central and
Southern Plains. This will serve to reinforce the low level
moisture that has been prevalent across our area during the late
spring/early summer. The gusty southeast winds will continue into
Tuesday and with more moisture in place, highs will be a few
degrees "cooler" than Monday with highs in the upper 80s to mid
90s. The western Concho Valley will remain the warm place with
highs still potentially climbing into the upper 90s.

A significant pattern change will be possible by mid to late week. A
tropical disturbance is expected to form in the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico over the next 4 days. The aforementioned upper ridge will
begin to rotate and spread west into the central US by mid-week,
pushing the upper level jet to the north. With widespread weak
easterly flow across the southern US, this will allow for the
tropical system to migrate north and east. A wave of deep, tropical
moisture is expected to push into our area ahead of this, creating
prime antecedent conditions for potentially heavy rainfall. There
is still significant differences in the track of this system in
both probabilistic and deterministic guidance. The latest 00Z
operational runs of GFS and ECMWF highlight these differences with
the GFS taking a more northerly track, allowing our area to take
advantage of the deep moisture in place. The ECMWF shows a much
more southerly track, keeping the bulk of beneficial rainfall
south of us across South Central Texas and Northern Mexico. In any
case, there will be a plethora of moisture to work with as pWat
values are forecast to be in the 2+ inch range across the entirety
of our area by Thursday (an anomaly of between .75-1.25 inches
for this time of year). Have stuck with the model blend at this
time that has capped PoPs at between 40-50% across our southern
counties for Thursday. The track of the system will play a crucial
role in how much rain we actually see across our area Wednesday
through Friday. Given the depth and abundance of moisture, any
showers or storms would likely be prolific rainfall producers so
there would be a risk of flash flooding. As such, WPC has put
southern portions of our area in their Day 5 (Thursday) Slight
Risk for excessive rainfall. Should a more northerly track become
the more likely option, this would likely need to be further
upgraded. Changes in QPF and overall rain chances will be likely
over the next few days so stay tuned for further refinements and
updates to the forecast. These rain chances will cool temperatures
for the end of the week with highs by Thursday in the lower 80s
areawide.

The tropical system looks to exit to the west during the day Friday
with rain chances ending across the region overnight into Saturday.
Temperatures will start back up on a warming trend with highs in the
90s by the weekend and dry conditions expected. Lows through the
entire long-term should stay in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Expect mainly VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. A few
thunderstorms are possible this morning, but coverage is way to
isolated to mention at the terminals and will watch radar trends
for possible amendments. Otherwise, expect gusty south to
southeast winds at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     94  74  94  73 /  20   0   0   0
San Angelo  99  74  99  74 /  20   0   0   0
Junction    97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   91  73  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  96  74  97  74 /  20   0   0   0
Ozona       96  72  96  72 /  20   0   0   0
Brady       91  72  92  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...21