923
FXUS64 KSJT 202249
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
549 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A moist and unstable airmass has moved into west central Texas in
the wake of the tropical-based rain shield that moved through the
area this morning.  CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg along with
dewpoints in the low 70s should result in some scattered
thunderstorms developing this afternoon, mainly from the Concho
Valley southward.  Given the tropical-based nature of these storms,
they are not expected to become severe, but could produce some
locally heavy downpours due to PWAT values around 2 inches.

As Alberto pushes through central Mexico and continues to degenerate
into a remnant low this evening, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will diminish and become confined to Crockett County
and the western Concho Valley Thursday night.  A more stable airmass
should take over by early Friday morning as a broad upper ridge,
located over the Ohio Valley, starts to build into west central
Texas.  This stable pattern should keep most of west central Texas
dry and sunny with decreasing clouds for the rest of Friday. High
temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than the past couple of
days given more sunshine. The one exception is in southern Crockett
County, where some lingering moisture from the remnants of Alberto
may result in some diurnally-driven showers or thunderstorms in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the weekend, we continue the warming trend across the region
as dry conditions make a return. A high pressure system will
develop across the southwestern U.S., which will leave us on the
eastern end of this system. This will be the root cause of our hot
and dry conditions. Some locations may make a return to the
triple digits early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Isolated SHRA/TSRA through 06Z could bring brief MVFR/IFR
conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions should continue through 06Z.
06Z-13Z, MVFR to locally IFR CIGs expected to develop south of a
Sweetwater to San Saba line, impacting KSAN, KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD,
while VFR conditions continue elsewhere. 13Z-18Z, expect
conditions to improve to VFR. 18Z today to 00Z Sat, widespread VFR
conditions expected. Winds from the E will weaken to around the
5-8 KT speed and become SE through 02Z and continue at that
speed/direction through 14Z. 14Z today through 00Z Sat, winds SE
8-11 KT with gusts of 14-17 KT expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  89  71  94 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  71  92  70  96 /  20  10   0   0
Junction    72  89  70  93 /  20  10   0   0
Brownwood   71  88  70  93 /  10  10   0   0
Sweetwater  70  90  71  96 /  20   0   0   0
Ozona       70  87  70  92 /  40  10   0   0
Brady       70  86  69  91 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...SJH