480
FXUS64 KSJT 201708
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1208 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

As of 230 AM, a broad swath of light to very light rain was
impacting most areas south and east of an Albany to Ozona line.
Rainfall rates with these showers are topping out at a few
hundredths an hour with the highest around 2 tenths of an inch an
hour across far southeastern Mason County. As this rain spreads
north and west, it seems to be losing its strength with radar
returns weakening significantly and most of this rain likely not
reaching the ground. A band of heavier rain is currently moving
through Llano and Gillespie counties and is moving west northwest
towards Kimble and Mason counties. Heavier rainfall rates closer
to 3-4 tenths of an inch per hour can be expected with this but it
is moving fairly quickly so the heavier burst will be short
lived. The overall complex of rain is expected to slowly drift
west/northwest through the morning with the bulk of the activity
out of our area by around 18Z. With our area on the far western
periphery of the upper ridge, some minor upper level impulses may
provide just enough additional lift to create some showers and
storms, especially across the southern half of the area as
abundant moisture will still be in place, along with marginal
instability at around 500-800 J/kg SBCAPE. These are expected to
be more diurnal in nature and are not expected to be severe. They
should gradually dissipate after sunset with the overnight hours
expected to be dry across the area. Daytime highs will remain
cooler in the mid to upper 80s with gusty east winds. Overnight
lows will be about the same as before in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A warming and drying trend will begin on Friday, as high pressure
rebuilds across West Central Texas and warm southerly flow
persists through the middle of next week. Afternoon high
temperatures will start off in the mid 80s to mid 90s on Friday,
increase into the mid 90s to near 100 by the end of the
weekend, then rise into the upper 90s to up to 104 by Wednesday.
Unfortunately, there are no precipitation chances expected
through the long term forecast at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

MVFR ceilings should continue to dissipate over the next 1-2
hours. However, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon for southern terminals and move from east to west.
Individual cells may produce brief gusty winds.  Storms should
diminish later this evening, with ceilings lowering back to MVFR
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  89  71  93 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  71  92  70  95 /  20  10   0   0
Junction    72  89  70  92 /  20  10   0   0
Brownwood   71  88  70  92 /  10  10   0   0
Sweetwater  70  90  71  95 /  20   0   0   0
Ozona       70  87  70  91 /  40  10   0   0
Brady       70  86  69  90 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...SK