Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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371 FXUS64 KSJT 172323 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 623 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Quiet weather will continue through the rest of today and into tomorrow. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau this evening but most of this activity should remain west of our area. Skies this afternoon are mostly clear across the western half of area with some scattered clouds streaming across the Big Country, Heartland, and northwest Hill Country. Temperatures are hottest across the Concho Valley, where we have readings currently in the upper 90s. Overnight, expect low level clouds to spread across the area. Lows will drop down into the lower 70s. Clouds should scatter out in the afternoon giving way to partly sunny skies. The hottest temperatures will again be across the Concho Valley. South- southeast winds will remain gusty overnight and into Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...Heavy rainfall, possible flooding Wednesday and Thursday... Main weather concern will be a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, which could become a tropical depression/storm over the next 48 hours (around 70 percent chance of development on the Two Day Tropical Weather Outlook from the Hurricane Center). Models, have the system moving into Gulf Coast Tuesday night...along a Junction to Brownwood line Wednesday...before moving west across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Tropical moisture with 2 inches of precipital water moves into the region Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be extremely efficient, and localized flooding possible, particularly south of I-20. Main problem will how much influence a developing upper ridge over Mississippi Valley and Southeast U.S. will have....as it may keep the heavy rainfall confined father south along the I-10 corridor. Rainfall in most areas will continue to be beneficial, but extreme tropical rainfall rates could cause flash flooding. The system does moves west of the region Thursday night, and dry conditions with clearing skies are expected Friday as the upper ridge continue to expand in from the east. Temperatures rebound back well into the 90s by Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Gusty southeast winds will continue throughout this TAF package, with gusts generally varying from 20 to 30 kts. MVFR CIGs are expected to move across the whole area tonight, entering our southern counties around 7Z to 9Z and then progressing northwest. Low clouds should start to scatter out by the late morning, leaving VFR conditions for the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 74 92 71 84 / 0 0 0 10 San Angelo 75 97 72 86 / 0 0 0 10 Junction 75 95 72 83 / 0 0 0 30 Brownwood 74 89 71 81 / 0 0 0 30 Sweetwater 74 95 71 86 / 0 0 0 10 Ozona 73 94 71 85 / 0 0 0 10 Brady 73 89 71 79 / 0 0 0 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...AP