902
FXUS64 KSJT 180518
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1218 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...Continued warmer than normal with dry weather...

West central Texas remains under upper level ridging this
afternoon. However, to our northwest, a shortwave is moving
through eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle region.
This is resulting in scattered thunderstorms moving northeast
across northeastern New Mexico, and also lee troughing, allowing
for a few gusts in our area out of the south and southeast.
Although a few isolated showers are possible this afternoon and
evening east of a Brownwood to Sonora line, as with yesterday,
coverage is expected to be too sparse to be worth mentioning.
Otherwise, the warm temperatures will continue, with lows tonight
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and highs tomorrow in the low to
mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Upper-level ridging will continue over the area through the rest
of the work week, as upper level troughs sit over both the west
and east coasts of the United States. This will allow the above-
normal temperatures to continue for much of this week, with
forecast highs in the 90s. We could start to see a pattern change
as the troughing over the west coast moves east. As the short wave
trough approaches the southern Rockies, the ridge axis over our
area will start to tilt, eventually weakening, and becoming more
zonal by early next week. The strength, timing, and exact path of
this short wave varies between models, impacting precipitation
chances and temperatures for this weekend and early next week.
Models have been going back and forth on whether or not this
system will push a cold front through West Central Texas late this
weekend and early next week. If we see a stronger and more
southern track of the low, disturbances could move through aloft
ahead of the shortwave, leading to rain chances on Saturday. We
could also see a cold front develop and move through the area,
leading to better rain chances and slightly lower temperatures for
Sunday and Monday. However, there is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with this system. If the shortwave is weaker and moves
further north, we could see a mostly dry forecast for our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

A few of the models continue to be a little more aggressive with
some patchy MVFR cigs around KSOA and KJCT around sunrise
Wednesday morning and will continue to mention at those sites.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should continue to prevail. South to
southeast winds will show a little gustiness during daylight
hours before settling back down around sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  96  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  73  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    73  94  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   72  96  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  74  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       73  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       72  94  71  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...07