458
FXUS64 KSJT 161708
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Another warm day in store will upper ridging aloft. Some of the
CAMS including the HRRR and NAM nest, develop one or two brief
showers and thunderstorms late afternoon and evening, but activity
should be much less than on Sunday. Given the very low potential,
will keep storms out of the forecast. Highs will be mainly in the
lower to mid 90s today, with upper 60s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...Warmer than normal temperatures through at least Saturday...
...Weak cold front arrives Sunday with a chance for showers and
storms...

In general, an upper level trough will remain just far enough off
to the west through Saturday to keep an upper level ridge in
place across West Central Texas. This means above normal
temperatures with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s across the
area. Some of the models do indicate a weak shortwave making a
little closer approach by Wednesday afternoon to produce a few
showers and storms across portions of the South Plains and Red
River Valley. Models have this dissipating north of the area, but
given how slowly the convection dissipated on Sunday evening,
expect the convection Wednesday to linger a little longer as well
and perhaps reach into portions of the northwest Big Country by
Wednesday evening.

Otherwise, main weather story will come with the arrival of a weak
cold front for Sunday and Monday, bringing a chance of at least
isolated showers and storms and a little cooler temperatures.
Nothing looks terribly drastic at this point but some highs down
in the upper 80s looks possible, and will continue the mention of
20% to 30% POPs at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours at all sites.
South to southeast winds of around 10 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     69  95  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  69  96  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    68  95  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   68  95  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  71  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       68  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       69  94  70  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20