866
FXUS64 KSJT 230940
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
440 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...Much cooler today...

The main story in the short term forecast will be how much cooler
the area is behind a cold front that sparked showers and
thunderstorms yesterday and continue early this morning. Highs
today will be mainly in the 70s. We will continue to have
southwest flow in the mid and upper levels to start the day, with
northerly flow at the surface. This will give us mostly cloudy
skies to start the day, as the current showers and thunderstorms
exit the area during the early morning hours. As the upper trough
axis slowly moves over the area and to the east, northwesterly
drying flow will move in aloft, and we should see slow clearing
during the afternoon from the northwest to southeast. As the cold
front attempts to retreat back to the north tonight, models do
show at least a 20% chance for additional showers and maybe a
thunderstorm or two this evening, so have kept some slight chance
PoPs in the forecast for this. Overnight lows will be slightly
cooler, mainly in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Another strong low pressure system will move across the eastern
portions of the Great Plains on Wednesday. This will swing another
cold front into the area on Wednesday, which will keep
temperatures a bit cooler for the remainder of the work week. High
temperatures look to be in the upper 70s to middle 80s. This
portion of the forecast is the part we are highly confident in.

What is less certain, however, is the track of this upper level
low pressure system. Our models show some interaction of this low
pressure with a tropical system moving inland over the
southeastern U.S. This interaction may shift the track of the
main upper level low pressure and/or tropical system. The
attendant rainfall will be highly dependent upon this support.
Given the most recent models runs, some rainfall across our area
seems reasonable. However, chances will remain lower (30-40%)
until better confidence is had. Our models have become a bit lower
with respect to the rainfall totals as well. It`s worth noting
that the Weather Prediction Center has removed west Central Texas
from another Marginal Risk (5% chance) of excessive rainfall
leading to flash flooding on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rainfall
totals of a couple tenths to a half an inch may not support as
much of a risk of flash flooding. We will have to keep an eye on
this scenario for changes in the next day or two.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

SHRA and TSRA continue to affect the KABI area. Farther south,
much less coverage of SHRA with no TSRA currently. Will continue
at least VCSH for southern terminals, but confidence is lower in
better coverage of TSRA farther south given the current trends.
Still expect CIGs to deteriorate into MVFR, and likely IFR between
now and 12Z at all sites. Expect these ceilings to then improve
gradually throughout the day tomorrow, with most sites back in the
VFR category by 00Z or a couple hours earlier. Winds will be out
of the north at all sites within the next hour or so, and should
remain northerly at 10 knots or less through 00Z Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     77  62  86  64 /  40  20  40  40
San Angelo  78  64  87  66 /  50  20  40  30
Junction    83  66  88  65 /  30  20  40  30
Brownwood   79  63  86  63 /  50  20  40  40
Sweetwater  77  63  86  65 /  20  20  30  30
Ozona       78  66  86  65 /  40  20  20  20
Brady       78  65  86  65 /  40  20  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20