989
FXUS64 KSJT 160721
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The latest radar imagery indicates storms over eastern NM and the
western South Plains. A few Hi-Res models indicated a few
showers/storms may make into the Concho Valley this morning and will
keep an eye on radar trends for possible low end Pops, but going
with a dry forecast for now. Otherwise, going with hot and dry
forecast today with highs in the mid 90s to around 100. Also,expect
gusty south to southeast winds at times during the next 24 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Hot and dry conditions will persist into early next week.
Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will climb into the upper 90s
to around 102 degrees across the western portion of the forecast
area, with slightly cooler highs across the eastern half. Then a
potential pattern change is on tap for the middle to latter part
of next week. An expansive mid-upper level ridge will be in place
across the southeastern and eastern United States. Meanwhile, we
continue to monitor a tropical disturbance in the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico. Whatever ultimately develops will likely move
across south Texas around the middle of the week. Deep easterly
flow around this system will advect abundant Gulf moisture into
the region, with precipitable water values increasing to 1.7-1.8
inches. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible as this moisture interacts with an upper level
disturbance. Given the uncertainty in the ultimate
evolution/track of the Gulf system and subsequent rainfall amounts
for our area will continue to advertise a 30-40% chance of PoPs
in the Thursday/Friday time frame. With the increasing rain
chances and expected cloud cover temperatures will be much cooler,
with highs in the 80s and lower 90s Wednesday through Friday.
Drier and warmer conditions will return for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Expect mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. A few hours of
MVFR ceilings are possible at the KJCT terminal Sunday morning.
Also, a few Hi-Res models are indicating widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms moving into the Concho Valley during the early
morning hours. Currently one severe storm north of Midland, moving
southeast. Will keep an eye on radar trends for possible
amendments for the KSJT terminal, but no thunder in the TAF for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     94  74  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  99  74  99  74 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   91  73  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  96  74  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       96  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       91  72  92  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...21