815
FXUS64 KSJT 240800
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
300 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

An upper level trough axis is currently swinging through our area as
showers and storms across the NW Hill Country continue to weaken and
push east early this afternoon. Low clouds are starting to mix out
with some clearing possible across the Big Country later in the
afternoon. Temperatures so far have been held in the upper 60s but
with some clearing expected and plenty of peak heating time left,
will hold off on adjusting today`s highs for the time being. Chances
for rain will continue tonight, mainly for areas south of I-20, as
the cold front begins to lift back north overnight and weak
shortwave impulses pass overhead. Members of the 12Z HREF continue
to differ on the amount of development and time of initiation so
have capped PoPs in the low-end chance category. Though northerly
surface flow is decreasing available moisture across the area, pWats
are forecasted to stay above 1.25 inches south of the Big Country
through tomorrow afternoon. We could see some additional development
tomorrow afternoon across our southeastern counties, even as the
surface boundary begins to wash out, with the help of some increased
upper level support. With clearing skies to the north, highs
tomorrow will be warmest across the Big Country, where temperatures
will climb into the upper 80s, approaching 90 degrees. Elsewhere,
with increased cloud cover and rain chances, temperatures will hold
in the lower to mid 80s. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s
to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

-Dry weather with warming temperatures

No significant changes in the long term from the previous
forecast. Early Wednesday, an upper level low will be moving
southeast from the Midwest into the mid-south region, and will
drive a cold front into the area. Models still show the potential
for a few showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours
Wednesday along this front, mainly south and east of a Brownwood
to Sonora line, so have kept some 20% PoPs in the forecast from
12Z to 18Z Wednesday. Wednesday through early next week, models
are in fairly good agreement that the aforementioned low will
drift from the deep south back to the north towards the Great
Lakes region as an upper level ridge remains anchored over the
southwestern U. S. That will keep our area underneath
northwesterly flow, and generally dry conditions will temperatures
near or a few degrees above normal through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Recent radar imagery, as of 520z, indicates some rain shower
development is already occurring north of KSJT. Scattered rain
showers and/or thunderstorms are possible across the region
throughout the TAF period. An occasional brief period of MVFR
ceilings are possible as place well. Expect winds to generally be
light. The increased moisture and light winds should be conducive
for patchy fog to develop intermittently. IFR conditions are
possible where the fog develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     87  64  82  58 /  20  30  10   0
San Angelo  89  65  85  58 /  10  20  10   0
Junction    88  65  85  58 /  30  20  10   0
Brownwood   87  65  82  57 /  30  40  10   0
Sweetwater  88  64  82  59 /  10  10   0   0
Ozona       88  65  85  58 /  10  10  10   0
Brady       86  65  82  58 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04